METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Rotterdam, Netherlands
8 May 2016
Welterweight
VS
96%
Edwards
4%
Waters
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Leon EdwardswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Dominic Waters · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Edwards
→
Actual result
Edwards wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Edwards is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 55 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Edwards has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EdwardsWaters
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Edwards
Waters
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+79"
35+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Waters
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
2.1
51.1
Performance Avg
0.0
36
Quality of Victory
0
95
Momentum Score
0
Edwards
Waters
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
4.2
Style: Pressure
0.0
7.2
Style: Volume
0.0
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
1
4
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance3
1Clinch0
7Ground0
Edwards
Waters
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Edwards
Waters
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
3/14 fights
Edwards
Waters
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Edwards
Waters
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Waters
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
EdwardsWaters
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedWaters
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (69% of attacks) — Waters absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Waters targets the body (67% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Waters
0/0R00/0
Edwards · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesKO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadDecision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanDecision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
Waters · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Dong Hyun KimKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
L · Dec · R3
George SullivanDecision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07