UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Rotterdam, Netherlands
8 May 2016
Welterweight
VS
96%
Edwards
4%
Waters
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Edwards
Edwards is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 55 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Edwards has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 36 points.
Edwards has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Edwards's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Edwards
Waters
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+79"
34+
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Edwards
Waters
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
57.4
2.1
51.1
Performance Avg
0.0
36
Quality of Victory
0
95
Momentum Score
0
Edwards
Waters
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.2
56%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
1
4
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance3
1Clinch0
7Ground0
Edwards
Waters
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Edwards
Waters
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
20/28 fights
Chin rating based on
3/14 fights
Edwards
Waters
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
95
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Edwards
Waters
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Edwards
Waters
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
7.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
EdwardsWaters
Strike Zones
Edwards
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedWaters
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Edwards targets the head (69% of attacks) — Waters absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Waters targets the body (67% of attacks) — Edwards absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Edwards
RND
Waters
0/0R00/0
Edwards · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Waters · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Edwards · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Carlos PratesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R4
Sean BradyRating 4.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
L · Dec · R5
Belal MuhammadRating 6.6Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.8Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03
Waters · Last 3
L · Dec · R3
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
L · KO · R1
Dong Hyun KimRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
L · Dec · R3
George SullivanRating 5.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07