UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Jul 2020
Heavyweight
VS
76%
Aspinall
24%
Collier
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:45
Tom
Tom Aspinall
15 – 3
6'5"78" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 83
JC
Jake Collier
"The Prototype"
13 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox78" reach6'3"
CFR 27

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aspinall

Aspinall is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 56 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aspinall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 34 points.

Aspinall has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Collier has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Aspinall
Collier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'3"
78"
Reach
78"
33+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aspinall
Collier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
83.0
26.7
77.7
Performance Avg
36.4
70
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
45
Aspinall
Collier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
4.7
1.9
69%
Strike Accuracy
43%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
1
1
Body
0
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
9Distance3
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Aspinall
Collier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aspinall
Collier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
2
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
14/23 fights
Aspinall
Collier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
45
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Aspinall
Collier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
40%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aspinall
Collier
Striking9.3 / 2.7Volume1.8 / 5.5Grappling2.0 / 3.0Wrestling1.4 / 2.1Submission2.5 / 2.0Pressure9.7 / 3.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
9.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Aspinall
Strike Zones
Collier
Aspinall
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 absorbed
Collier
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY2LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aspinall targets the head (70% of attacks) — Collier absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Collier targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Aspinall absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aspinall
RND
Collier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Aspinall · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W6.0W5.5W6.3W2.4L5.4W6.2W5.9W2020-072021-092023-072024-07
WinLossTrend

Collier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0101.5L4.5W2.8L5.2W5.5L4.5W3.9L4.5W5.5L5.0W6.2L3.8L6.5L6.5L2014-122017-042021-062023-042023-09
WinLossTrend

Aspinall · Last 5

Upcoming
Ciryl Gane
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07

Collier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Mohammed UsmanRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Martin BudayRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
L · KO · R2
Chris BarnettRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R3
Andrei ArlovskiRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04
W · Sub · R1
Chase ShermanRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01

News & Media

Tom Aspinall · Jake Collier
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