UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
Melbourne, Australia
26 Nov 2016
Middleweight
VS
57%
Whittaker
43%
Brunson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:07
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Whittaker
This is a genuine toss-up — Whittaker at 57% vs Brunson at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Brunson throws more volume but Whittaker connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Whittaker's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Brunson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Whittaker
Brunson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
73"
Reach
+77"
35+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Whittaker
Brunson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
53.4
40.2
56.0
Performance Avg
54.7
46
Quality of Victory
47
71
Momentum Score
72
Whittaker
Brunson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.7
44%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
30
Head
18
2
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
20Distance9
7Clinch10
6Ground0
Whittaker
Brunson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.4
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Whittaker
Brunson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
21/32 fights
Whittaker
Brunson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
72
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Whittaker
Brunson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
35%
64%
6
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
2
11
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Whittaker
Brunson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
WhittakerBrunson
Strike Zones
Whittaker
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedBrunson
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Whittaker targets the head (91% of attacks) — Brunson absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Brunson targets the head (95% of attacks) — Whittaker absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Whittaker
RND
Brunson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Whittaker · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Brunson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Whittaker · Last 5
Upcoming
Nikita KrylovUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Reinier de RidderRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Sub · R1
Khamzat ChimaevRating 3.4Submission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Paulo CostaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Brunson · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dricus Du PlessisRating 4.7KO/TKO
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
W · Sub · R3
Darren TillRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Till · 2021-09
W · Dec · R5
Kevin HollandRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Holland · 2021-03
W · KO · R3
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08