UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Rotterdam, Netherlands
8 May 2016
Middleweight
VS
58%
Cedenblad
42%
McLellan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:47
MC
Magnus Cedenblad
"Jycken"
14 – 5
6'5"79" reachOrthodox44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
GM
Garreth McLellan
"Soldier Boy"
13 – 6
Knockout Artist3-fight slide43 yrsSouthpaw72" reach6'1"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cedenblad

This is a genuine toss-up — Cedenblad at 58% vs McLellan at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

McLellan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cedenblad's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

McLellan has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cedenblad
McLellan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
72"
44
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Cedenblad
McLellan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.8
14.3
54.2
Performance Avg
38.0
46
Quality of Victory
50
59
Momentum Score
20
Cedenblad
McLellan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance1
5Clinch0
0Ground0
Cedenblad
McLellan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cedenblad
McLellan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
52
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/19 fights
Chin rating based on
5/19 fights
Cedenblad
McLellan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
20
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Cedenblad
McLellan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cedenblad
McLellan
Striking3.8 / 10.0Volume3.3 / 0.4Grappling4.6 / 0.0Wrestling3.2 / 0.0Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure7.3 / 7.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
Cedenblad
Strike Zones
McLellan
Cedenblad
Attacking
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
McLellan
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD1BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cedenblad targets the head (90% of attacks) — McLellan absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯McLellan targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Cedenblad absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cedenblad
RND
McLellan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Cedenblad · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0102.8L5.0W5.2W4.5W5.2W2.8L2012-042013-082014-052014-102016-052016-11
WinLossTrend

McLellan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.5L2.5L2015-042015-102016-052016-082017-03
WinLossTrend

Cedenblad · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Jack MarshmanRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Garreth McLellanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott AskhamRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Sub · R2
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
W · Sub · R1
Jared HammanRating 5
Submission
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08

McLellan · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Paulo CostaRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · KO · R2
Magnus CedenbladRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · KO · R3
Bubba BushRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Bartosz FabinskiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04

News & Media

Magnus Cedenblad · Garreth McLellan
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