METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Rotterdam, Netherlands
8 May 2016
Middleweight
VS
58%
Cedenblad
42%
McLellan
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:47
★ Official Result
Magnus CedenbladwinsKO/TKOR2 · 0:47
def. Garreth McLellan · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cedenblad
→
Actual result
Cedenblad wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Cedenblad at 58% vs McLellan at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
McLellan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cedenblad's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McLellan has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CedenbladMcLellan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cedenblad
McLellan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'1"
79"+
Reach
72"
44
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Cedenblad
McLellan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.8
14.3
54.2
Performance Avg
38.0
46
Quality of Victory
50
59
Momentum Score
20
Cedenblad
McLellan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance1
5Clinch0
0Ground0
Cedenblad
McLellan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cedenblad
McLellan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
52
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/19 fights
Chin rating based on
5/19 fights
Cedenblad
McLellan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
20
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Cedenblad
McLellan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cedenblad
McLellan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
4.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.4
CedenbladMcLellan
Strike Zones
Cedenblad
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedMcLellan
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cedenblad targets the head (90% of attacks) — McLellan absorbs 90% of strikes there
🎯McLellan targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Cedenblad absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cedenblad
RND
McLellan
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cedenblad · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
McLellan · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Cedenblad · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Jack MarshmanRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Garreth McLellanRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Scott AskhamRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
W · Sub · R2
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousasi · 2014-05
W · Sub · R1
Jared HammanRating 5Submission
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · 2013-08
McLellan · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Paulo CostaRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · 2017-03
L · Dec · R3
Alessio Di ChiricoRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · KO · R2
Magnus CedenbladRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
W · KO · R3
Bubba BushRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
L · Dec · R3
Bartosz FabinskiRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro Cop 2 · 2015-04