UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker
Auckland, New Zealand
22 Feb 2020
Lightweight
VS
50%
Riddell
50%
Mustafaev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
BR
Brad Riddell
"Quake"
10 – 4
5'7"71" reachOrthodox34 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 21
MM
Magomed Mustafaev
"The Sniper"
14 – 4
Striker37 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'8"
CFR 21

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Riddell

This is a genuine toss-up — Riddell at 50% vs Mustafaev at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Mustafaev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 24 points.

Striking split: Riddell throws more volume but Mustafaev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Riddell's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Riddell
Mustafaev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
71"
Reach
71"
34+
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Riddell
Mustafaev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.7
20.6
37.9
Performance Avg
53.5
25
Quality of Victory
49
50
Momentum Score
65
Riddell
Mustafaev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.4
57%
Strike Accuracy
59%
1.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
2
7
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
3Distance4
1Clinch0
14Ground0
Riddell
Mustafaev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riddell
Mustafaev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
5/18 fights
Riddell
Mustafaev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
65
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · R2
Riddell
Mustafaev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Riddell
Mustafaev
Striking1.1 / 7.9Volume9.1 / 1.2Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.7 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
9.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.2
Riddell
Strike Zones
Mustafaev
Riddell
Attacking
10HEAD7BODY1LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Mustafaev
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD7BODY1LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Riddell targets the head (56% of attacks) — Mustafaev absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Mustafaev targets the head (50% of attacks) — Riddell absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Riddell
RND
Mustafaev
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Riddell · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.7W4.5W4.5W5.7W5.0L2.7L2.3L2019-102020-092021-122022-11
WinLossTrend

Mustafaev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.2W5.0W2.8L6.0W5.5L2015-062015-122016-112019-042020-02
WinLossTrend

Riddell · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Renato MoicanoRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
L · Sub · R1
Jalin TurnerRating 2.7
Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R3
Rafael FizievRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12
W · Dec · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
W · Dec · R3
Alex Da SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09

Mustafaev · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Brad RiddellRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02
W · KO · R1
Rafael FizievRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · Sub · R2
Kevin LeeRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Joe ProctorRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · 2015-12
W · R2
Piotr HallmannRating 4.2
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · 2015-06

News & Media

Brad Riddell · Magomed Mustafaev
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