UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Las Vegas, USA
23 Oct 2021
Lightweight
VS
37%
Worthy
63%
Herbert
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:47
KW
Khama Worthy
"The Death Star"
16 – 9
5'11"74" reachOrthodox39 yrs3-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 29
Jai
Jai Herbert
"Black Country Banger"
14 – 6
Well-Rounded38 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'1"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Herbert

Herbert holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Worthy has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Worthy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Worthy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Worthy's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Herbert has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Worthy
Herbert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
+77"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Worthy
Herbert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.0
49.6
47.5
Performance Avg
43.3
53
Quality of Victory
43
59
Momentum Score
74
Worthy
Herbert
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
21
1
Body
1
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance19
0Clinch2
0Ground3
Worthy
Herbert
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Worthy
Herbert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
40
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Worthy
Herbert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
74
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Worthy
Herbert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Worthy
Herbert
Striking5.8 / 5.9Volume0.8 / 4.9Grappling4.0 / 1.2Wrestling2.8 / 0.8Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure8.2 / 4.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Worthy
Strike Zones
Herbert
Worthy
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY5LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD1BODY2LEGS24 absorbed
Herbert
Attacking
21HEAD1BODY2LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY5LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Worthy targets the head (45% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Herbert targets the head (88% of attacks) — Worthy absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Worthy
RND
Herbert
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Worthy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0105.0W5.5W2.3L1.7L2.2L2019-082020-062020-092021-032021-10
WinLossTrend

Herbert · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.0L3.5L5.0W5.1L4.6W6.7L4.5W7.3L5.0W2020-072022-032024-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Worthy · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Jai HerbertRating 2.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · KO · R1
Jamie MullarkeyRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Sub · R3
Luis PenaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
W · KO · R1
Devonte SmithRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08

Herbert · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris PadillaRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Upcoming
Ludovit Klein
Decision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03

News & Media

Khama Worthy · Jai Herbert
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