METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Las Vegas, USA
23 Oct 2021
Lightweight
VS
37%
Worthy
63%
Herbert
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:47
★ Official Result
Jai HerbertwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:47
def. Khama Worthy · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Herbert
→
Actual result
Herbert wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Herbert holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Worthy has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Worthy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Worthy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Worthy's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Herbert has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WorthyHerbert
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Worthy
Herbert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'1"
74"
Reach
+77"
39
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Worthy
Herbert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.0
49.6
47.5
Performance Avg
43.3
53
Quality of Victory
43
59
Momentum Score
74
Worthy
Herbert
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
1.5
45%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.9
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
21
1
Body
1
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
11Distance19
0Clinch2
0Ground3
Worthy
Herbert
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Worthy
Herbert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
40
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/25 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Worthy
Herbert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
74
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Worthy
Herbert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Worthy
Herbert
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.9
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
WorthyHerbert
Strike Zones
Worthy
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedHerbert
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Worthy targets the head (45% of attacks) — Herbert absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Herbert targets the head (88% of attacks) — Worthy absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Worthy
RND
Herbert
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Worthy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Herbert · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Worthy · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jai HerbertRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · 2021-10
L · KO · R1
Jamie MullarkeyRating 1.7KO/TKO
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R1
Ottman AzaitarRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
W · Sub · R3
Luis PenaRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · 2020-06
W · KO · R1
Devonte SmithRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
Herbert · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Mandel NalloRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris PadillaRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Rolando BedoyaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
Upcoming
Ludovit KleinDecision
UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · 2023-03