★ Championship Bout · Women's Strawweight
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2
Jacksonville, USA
24 Apr 2021
Women's Strawweight
VS
53%
Weili
47%
Namajunas
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Weili
This is a genuine toss-up — Weili at 53% vs Namajunas at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Weili has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Namajunas has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Weili
Namajunas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'5"
63"
Reach
+65"
36
Age
+33
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Weili
Namajunas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
71.6
63.2
66.9
Performance Avg
55.9
60
Quality of Victory
51
100
Momentum Score
100
Weili
Namajunas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
56%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
0
Body
0
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground3
Weili
Namajunas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.4
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Weili
Namajunas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
56
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
10 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/30 fights
Chin rating based on
19/23 fights
Weili
Namajunas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Weili
Namajunas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
42%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Weili
Namajunas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.8
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
WeiliNamajunas
Strike Zones
Weili
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedNamajunas
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Weili targets the legs (86% of attacks) — Namajunas absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Namajunas targets the head (100% of attacks) — Weili absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Weili
RND
Namajunas
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Weili · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Namajunas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Weili · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Tatiana SuarezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Yan XiaonanRating 5.5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Dec · R5
Amanda LemosRating 5.6Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
W · Sub · R2
Carla EsparzaRating 5.4Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Namajunas · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Miranda MaverickRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R5
Erin BlanchfieldRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
W · Dec · R5
Tracy CortezRating 5.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
W · Dec · R5
Amanda RibasRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03