UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
Las Vegas, USA
4 Mar 2017
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Pedro
47%
Craig
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:10
Tyson
Tyson Pedro
10 – 5
6'3"79" reachOrthodox34 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 56
Paul
Paul Craig
"Bearjew"
17 – 10
Pressure Fighter4-fight slide38 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'3"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Pedro

This is a genuine toss-up — Pedro at 53% vs Craig at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Pedro has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Pedro's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Craig has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Pedro
Craig
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
76"
34+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pedro
Craig
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.6
49.1
56.6
Performance Avg
50.4
58
Quality of Victory
52
65
Momentum Score
46
Pedro
Craig
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.5
60%
Strike Accuracy
47%
7.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
2
3
Body
7
2
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance4
8Clinch8
11Ground0
Pedro
Craig
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pedro
Craig
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
0
Moderate
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/15 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Pedro
Craig
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
46
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Pedro
Craig
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
6
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Pedro
Craig
Striking7.8 / 4.3Volume1.1 / 0.9Grappling2.7 / 5.3Wrestling1.9 / 3.7Submission3.3 / 6.7Pressure8.6 / 8.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
8.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
1.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Pedro
Strike Zones
Craig
Pedro
Attacking
18HEAD3BODY2LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD7BODY3LEGS12 absorbed
Craig
Attacking
2HEAD7BODY3LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD3BODY2LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Pedro targets the head (78% of attacks) — Craig absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Craig targets the body (58% of attacks) — Pedro absorbs 58% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Pedro
RND
Craig
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Pedro · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.9W5.7W5.5L5.0W2.1L4.0L5.0W5.0W6.3L5.0W6.6L2016-112018-022022-042023-092024-03
WinLossTrend

Craig · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.2W2.5L2.4L7.0W5.5L6.8W2.4L5.0W5.0W5.2W6.3W6.2W6.3L2.3L6.2W4.1L4.1L7.2L2.3L2016-122019-032021-062023-112025-09
WinLossTrend

Pedro · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
W · KO · R1
Anton TurkaljRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · 2023-09
L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · KO · R1
Harry HunsuckerRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards · 2022-08
W · KO · R1
Ike VillanuevaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

Craig · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Modestas BukauskasRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
Upcoming
Rodolfo Bellato
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Bo NickalRating 7.2
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · KO · R2
Caio BorralhoRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 4.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11

News & Media

Tyson Pedro · Paul Craig
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