UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Atlantic City, USA
21 Apr 2018
Bantamweight
VS
74%
Sterling
26%
Johns
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Aljamain
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26 – 5
5'7"71" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 54
BJ
Brett Johns
"The Pikey"
17 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak34 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'7"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sterling

Sterling is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Sterling throws more volume but Johns connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sterling
Johns
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
71"
Reach
71"
36
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Johns
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
18.9
54.2
Performance Avg
49.5
38
Quality of Victory
35
71
Momentum Score
65
Sterling
Johns
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.8
52%
Strike Accuracy
54%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
5
12
Body
1
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance3
13Clinch3
8Ground0
Sterling
Johns
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.6
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sterling
Johns
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Sterling
Johns
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
65
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Sterling
Johns
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
40%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
2
12
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sterling
Johns
Striking2.7 / 1.4Volume6.5 / 6.2Grappling3.2 / 4.6Wrestling2.3 / 3.3Submission2.2 / 4.0Pressure4.7 / 4.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.6
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.2
Sterling
Strike Zones
Johns
Sterling
Attacking
10HEAD12BODY5LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Johns
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD12BODY5LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the body (44% of attacks) — Johns absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Johns targets the head (83% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sterling
RND
Johns
0/0R00/0

Sterling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W5.5W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.3W4.5W5.0W6.5W5.9W6.0W5.2W6.0W3.6L5.0W6.8L5.9W5.5W2014-022017-042019-062023-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Johns · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0104.5W4.5W5.0W6.5L6.0L5.5W5.4W2016-112017-122018-082020-07
WinLossTrend

Sterling · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Johns · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 · 2020-07
W · Sub · R3
Tony GravelyRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 6
Decision
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · 2018-08
L · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Sub · R1
Joe SotoRating 5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: A New World Champion Finale · 2017-12

News & Media

Aljamain Sterling · Brett Johns
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