UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
Las Vegas, USA
29 May 2016
Bantamweight
VS
73%
Sterling
27%
Caraway
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Aljamain
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
26 – 5
5'7"71" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 54
BC
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
21 – 9
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'8"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sterling

Sterling is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Sterling has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Sterling
Caraway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
71"+
Reach
68"
36+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Caraway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
20.0
54.2
Performance Avg
47.9
38
Quality of Victory
40
71
Momentum Score
82
Sterling
Caraway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
52%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
2
3
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Sterling
Caraway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.1
2.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sterling
Caraway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
10/30 fights
Sterling
Caraway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
82
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Sterling
Caraway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sterling
Caraway
Striking2.7 / 1.2Volume6.5 / 3.9Grappling3.2 / 6.1Wrestling2.3 / 4.3Submission2.2 / 6.7Pressure4.7 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
Sterling
Strike Zones
Caraway
Sterling
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Caraway
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the body (50% of attacks) — Caraway absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Caraway targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sterling
RND
Caraway
0/0R00/0

Sterling · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.7W5.5W5.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.3W4.5W5.0W6.5W5.9W6.0W5.2W6.0W3.6L5.0W6.8L5.9W5.5W2014-022017-042019-062023-082026-04
WinLossTrend

Caraway · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.2W5.5W5.5L5.5W5.2W5.5L4.5W5.5W5.5L2.0L2011-122013-042015-072018-11
WinLossTrend

Sterling · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Caraway · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Pedro MunhozRating 2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Raphael AssuncaoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10

News & Media

Aljamain Sterling · Bryan Caraway
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