METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
Las Vegas, USA
29 May 2016
Bantamweight
VS
73%
Sterling
27%
Caraway
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Bryan CarawaywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Aljamain Sterling · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Sterling
→
Actual result
Caraway wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Sterling is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Sterling's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SterlingCaraway
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sterling
Caraway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
71"+
Reach
68"
37+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Sterling
Caraway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
54.2
20.0
54.2
Performance Avg
47.9
38
Quality of Victory
40
71
Momentum Score
82
Sterling
Caraway
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
4.7
Style: Pressure
6.5
6.5
Style: Volume
3.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
2
3
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Sterling
Caraway
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
6.1
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
4.3
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
6.7
4
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sterling
Caraway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/31 fights
Chin rating based on
10/30 fights
Sterling
Caraway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
82
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Sterling
Caraway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
4
12
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sterling
Caraway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.1
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.3
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
SterlingCaraway
Strike Zones
Sterling
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedCaraway
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sterling targets the body (50% of attacks) — Caraway absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Caraway targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sterling
RND
Caraway
0/0R00/0
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyKO/TKO
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Caraway · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Pedro MunhozKO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Cody StamannDecision
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · 2018-03
W · Dec · R3
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · Dec · R3
Eddie WinelandDecision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · Dec · R3
Raphael AssuncaoDecision
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