METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Las Vegas, USA
18 Nov 2023
Lightweight
VS
41%
Ogden
59%
Motta
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Motta
This is a genuine toss-up — Ogden at 41% vs Motta at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Motta has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Risk flags
Motta has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
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Ogden
Motta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
36
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ogden
Motta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
33.5
47.4
35.0
Performance Avg
49.0
25
Quality of Victory
48
40
Momentum Score
41
Ogden
Motta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
/ 10
7.7
/ 10
1.5
Style: Pressure
6.2
9.0
Style: Volume
3.7
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ogden
Motta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ogden
Motta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
34
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/25 fights
Chin rating based on
7/21 fights
Ogden
Motta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
41
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
Ogden
Motta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Ogden
Motta
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
OgdenMotta
Strike Zones
Ogden
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedMotta
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Ogden targets the head (100% of attacks) — Motta absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Ogden
RND
Motta
0/0R00/0
Ogden · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thiago MoisesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loik RadzhabovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughDecision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Upcoming
Nikolas MottaUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesDecision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
Motta · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Nazim SadykhovKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
MaheshateDecision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · KO · R1
Tom NolanKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Trey OgdenUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06