UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig
Las Vegas, USA
18 Nov 2023
Lightweight
VS
44%
Ogden
56%
Motta
Win Probability
Trey
Trey Ogden
"Shamurai"
18 – 7
5'11"72" reachOrthodox36 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 37
Nikolas
Nikolas Motta
"Iron"
15 – 6
Striker33 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Motta

This is a genuine toss-up — Ogden at 44% vs Motta at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Motta has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.

Motta has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Motta has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ogden
Motta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
72"+
Reach
70"
36
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ogden
Motta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.3
47.4
35.0
Performance Avg
49.0
25
Quality of Victory
48
40
Momentum Score
41
Ogden
Motta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
2.3
44%
Strike Accuracy
47%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Ogden
Motta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Ogden
Motta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
34
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/25 fights
Chin rating based on
7/21 fights
Ogden
Motta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
41
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · KO · R1
Ogden
Motta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ogden
Motta
Striking1.0 / 7.7Volume9.0 / 3.7Grappling2.4 / 0.8Wrestling1.7 / 0.6Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.5 / 6.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.7
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.2
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
Ogden
Strike Zones
Motta
Ogden
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Motta
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ogden targets the head (100% of attacks) — Motta absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ogden
RND
Motta
0/0R00/0

Ogden · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0107.0L4.9W6.8L4.5W5.0W5.7L2022-042022-092023-042024-032024-072025-01
WinLossTrend

Motta · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0103.2L5.0W3.6L6.5W4.8W4.2L2022-022022-092023-062024-012024-112025-06
WinLossTrend

Ogden · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Thiago MoisesRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loik RadzhabovRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
W · Dec · R3
Kurt HolobaughRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · 2024-03
Upcoming
Nikolas Motta
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · Dec · R3
Ignacio BahamondesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04

Motta · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Nazim SadykhovRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
MaheshateRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11
W · KO · R1
Tom NolanRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Upcoming
Trey Ogden
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · 2023-11
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Cannonier · 2023-06

News & Media

Trey Ogden · Nikolas Motta
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