METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Miami, USA
9 Mar 2024
Lightweight
VS
47%
Poirier
53%
Denis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:32
★ Official Result
Dustin PoirierwinsKO/TKOR2 · 2:32
def. Benoit Saint Denis · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Denis
→
Actual result
Poirier wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 47% vs Denis at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Denis has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PoirierDenis
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Poirier
Denis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+73"
37
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Poirier
Denis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
68.7
58.2
Performance Avg
60.2
50
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
91
Poirier
Denis
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.0
/ 10
6.9
/ 10
6.6
Style: Pressure
9.1
4.0
Style: Volume
1.4
10 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
3
Body
8
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance4
1Clinch8
1Ground0
Poirier
Denis
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
3.6
/ 10
1.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.5
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
4.4
4
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Poirier
Denis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Poirier
Denis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
91
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
Poirier
Denis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
100%
10
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
4
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Poirier
Denis
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.9
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.1
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.4
PoirierDenis
Strike Zones
Poirier
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedDenis
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (81% of attacks) — Denis absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Denis targets the body (67% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Poirier
RND
Denis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayDecision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevSubmission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisKO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeKO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerSubmission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
Denis · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Paddy PimblettSubmission
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · KO · R2
Dan HookerKO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushKO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R2
Mauricio RuffySubmission
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Sub · R2
Kyle PrepolecSubmission
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05