UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2
Miami, USA
9 Mar 2024
Lightweight
VS
46%
Poirier
54%
Denis
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 2:32
Dustin
Dustin Poirier
"The Diamond"
30 – 10
5'9"72" reachSouthpaw37 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 61
Benoit
Benoit Saint Denis
"God of War"
17 – 3
Knockout Artist4-fight win streak30 yrsSouthpaw73" reach5'11"
CFR 71

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Denis

This is a genuine toss-up — Poirier at 46% vs Denis at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Denis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Poirier's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Poirier
Denis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+73"
37
Age
+30
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Poirier
Denis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.4
70.9
58.2
Performance Avg
62.5
50
Quality of Victory
54
100
Momentum Score
91
Poirier
Denis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.7
54%
Strike Accuracy
60%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.1
10 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
4
3
Body
8
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
14Distance4
1Clinch8
1Ground0
Poirier
Denis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.6
1.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Poirier
Denis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/40 fights
Chin rating based on
13/20 fights
Poirier
Denis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
91
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
Poirier
Denis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
64%
100%
10
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
4
8
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Poirier
Denis
Striking6.0 / 7.1Volume4.0 / 1.5Grappling2.2 / 3.6Wrestling1.6 / 2.5Submission1.8 / 4.4Pressure6.6 / 9.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.1
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.6
1.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.4
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.3
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.5
Poirier
Strike Zones
Denis
Poirier
Attacking
13HEAD3BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD8BODY0LEGS12 absorbed
Denis
Attacking
4HEAD8BODY0LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD3BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Poirier targets the head (81% of attacks) — Denis absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Denis targets the body (67% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Poirier
RND
Denis
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Poirier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W6.1W3.9L5.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.2W3.5L6.0W5.0W4.5W5.7W1.6L4.9W5.2W6.9W5.1W5.6W2.8L5.4W7.1W6.0W4.2L6.3W3.7L6.9W6.0L6.6L2011-012013-122017-022021-072025-07
WinLossTrend

Denis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0106.0L5.2W5.7W5.4W5.5W5.2W3.4L5.1L5.2W6.9W6.0W6.1W2021-102023-072024-032025-092026-01
WinLossTrend

Poirier · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6
Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9
KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3
Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11

Denis · Last 5

Upcoming
Paddy Pimblett
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · KO · R2
Dan HookerRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R2
Mauricio RuffyRating 6.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Sub · R2
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05

News & Media

Dustin Poirier · Benoit Saint Denis
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