UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Lightweight
VS
88%
Gonzalez
12%
Cottrell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:54
JG
Jason Gonzalez
"Nicoya"
11 – 5
6'2"74" reachSouthpaw36 yrs2-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 17
JC
JC Cottrell
17 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox5'9"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gonzalez

Gonzalez is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Gonzalez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.

Gonzalez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Gonzalez's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gonzalez
Cottrell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
74"
Reach
36
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.0
2.4
42.4
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
43
Momentum Score
0
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.5
34%
Strike Accuracy
25%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/16 fights
Chin rating based on
2/22 fights
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Gonzalez
Cottrell
Striking0.5 / 0.0Volume0.5 / 0.0Grappling8.0 / 0.0Wrestling5.6 / 0.0Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure7.8 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Gonzalez
Strike Zones
Cottrell
Gonzalez
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Cottrell
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Gonzalez targets the head (75% of attacks) — Cottrell absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Cottrell targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gonzalez absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Gonzalez
RND
Cottrell
0/0R00/0

Gonzalez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.1
0102.7L5.0W2.8L1.9L2016-092017-012017-092019-04
WinLossTrend

Cottrell · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0105.5L1.5L2016-072017-01
WinLossTrend

Gonzalez · Last 4

L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerRating 1.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
L · Sub · R2
Gregor GillespieRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
W · Sub · R1
JC CottrellRating 5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09

Cottrell · Last 2

L · Sub · R1
Jason GonzalezRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
L · Dec · R3
Michel PrazeresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07

News & Media

Jason Gonzalez · JC Cottrell
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