METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Lightweight
VS
88%
Gonzalez
12%
Cottrell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:54
★ Official Result
Jason GonzalezwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:54
def. JC Cottrell · UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gonzalez
→
Actual result
Gonzalez wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Gonzalez is a strong favourite at 88% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gonzalez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.
Risk flags
Gonzalez's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
GonzalezCottrell
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'9"
74"
Reach
36
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.0
2.4
42.4
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
43
Momentum Score
0
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
7.8
Style: Pressure
0.0
0.5
Style: Volume
0.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/16 fights
Chin rating based on
2/22 fights
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gonzalez
Cottrell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
GonzalezCottrell
Strike Zones
Gonzalez
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedCottrell
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gonzalez targets the head (75% of attacks) — Cottrell absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Cottrell targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gonzalez absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gonzalez
RND
Cottrell
0/0R00/0
Gonzalez · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Jim MillerSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
L · Sub · R2
Gregor GillespieSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
W · Sub · R1
JC CottrellSubmission
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
L · KO · R1
Drew DoberKO/TKO
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
Cottrell · Last 2
L · Sub · R1
Jason GonzalezSubmission
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · 2017-01
L · Dec · R3
Michel PrazeresDecision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07