METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Welterweight
VS
51%
Sullivan
49%
Yakovlev
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:59
AY
CFR 15
★ Official Result
Alexander YakovlevwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:59
def. George Sullivan · UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Sullivan
→
Actual result
Yakovlev wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Sullivan at 51% vs Yakovlev at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Sullivan's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Yakovlev has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SullivanYakovlev
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+74"
45
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
15.4
38.1
Performance Avg
40.2
35
Quality of Victory
45
79
Momentum Score
36
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.2
/ 10
4.0
/ 10
3.6
Style: Pressure
5.7
6.2
Style: Volume
3.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
5
Body
5
8
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance8
3Clinch3
0Ground4
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.6
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
68
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/24 fights
Chin rating based on
9/34 fights
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
36
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
SullivanYakovlev
Strike Zones
Sullivan
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedYakovlev
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Sullivan targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Yakovlev absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Yakovlev targets the head (33% of attacks) — Sullivan absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Sullivan
RND
Yakovlev
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Sullivan · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Mickey GallSubmission
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W · Dec · R3
Dominic WatersDecision
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L · Sub · R3
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Yakovlev · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Joel AlvarezSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
Roosevelt RobertsDecision
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W · Sub · R2
Alex Da SilvaSubmission
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L · Sub · R2
Zak CummingsSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanDecision
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