UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
Newark, USA
30 Jan 2016
Welterweight
VS
51%
Sullivan
49%
Yakovlev
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:59
GS
George Sullivan
"The Silencer"
17 – 7
6'0"73" reachOrthodox45 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
AY
Alexander Yakovlev
"Russian Thunder"
24 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'3"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sullivan

This is a genuine toss-up — Sullivan at 51% vs Yakovlev at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Sullivan throws more volume but Yakovlev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Sullivan's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Yakovlev has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sullivan
Yakovlev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'3"
73"
Reach
+74"
45
Age
+41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.1
15.4
38.1
Performance Avg
40.2
35
Quality of Victory
45
79
Momentum Score
36
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.8
46%
Strike Accuracy
50%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
5
Body
5
8
Leg
5
RangeRange
11Distance8
3Clinch3
0Ground4
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
68
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/24 fights
Chin rating based on
9/34 fights
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
36
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Sullivan
Yakovlev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sullivan
Yakovlev
Striking4.2 / 4.0Volume6.2 / 3.3Grappling1.6 / 3.5Wrestling1.1 / 2.4Submission0.0 / 3.3Pressure3.6 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Sullivan
Strike Zones
Yakovlev
Sullivan
Attacking
1HEAD5BODY8LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD5BODY5LEGS15 absorbed
Yakovlev
Attacking
5HEAD5BODY5LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD5BODY8LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sullivan targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Yakovlev absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Yakovlev targets the head (33% of attacks) — Sullivan absorbs 33% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sullivan
RND
Yakovlev
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Sullivan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0104.5W5.2W4.1L4.5W1.5L3.4L2.0L2014-012015-042016-012018-08
WinLossTrend

Yakovlev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L5.5L4.5W5.0W6.6L3.1L5.2W5.7L2.8L2014-052016-012019-042020-10
WinLossTrend

Sullivan · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Mickey GallRating 2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · Sub · R2
Niko PriceRating 3.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · 2018-01
L · KO · R1
Alexander YakovlevRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · Dec · R3
Dominic WatersRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · Sub · R3
Tim MeansRating 4.1
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04

Yakovlev · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Joel AlvarezRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
L · Dec · R3
Roosevelt RobertsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
W · Sub · R2
Alex Da SilvaRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04
L · Sub · R2
Zak CummingsRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
L · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07

News & Media

George Sullivan · Alexander Yakovlev
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