UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
Las Vegas, USA
5 Mar 2016
Featherweight
VS
74%
Erosa
26%
Ishihara
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:34
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Erosa
Erosa is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Erosa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Erosa's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ishihara has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Erosa
Ishihara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'7"
74"+
Reach
69"
36
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Erosa
Ishihara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.6
14.1
46.2
Performance Avg
43.0
44
Quality of Victory
47
26
Momentum Score
13
Erosa
Ishihara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
5
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Erosa
Ishihara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.4
/ 10
0.8
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.6
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Erosa
Ishihara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
7
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.4 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
9/17 fights
Erosa
Ishihara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
26
13
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Erosa
Ishihara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
67%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
4
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Erosa
Ishihara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.4
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
ErosaIshihara
Strike Zones
Erosa
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedIshihara
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Erosa targets the head (50% of attacks) — Ishihara absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ishihara targets the head (100% of attacks) — Erosa absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Erosa
RND
Ishihara
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Erosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Ishihara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Erosa · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Lerryan DouglasRating 3.9KO/TKO
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Ishihara · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Kyung Ho KangRating 2.4Submission
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L · KO · R1
Petr YanRating 3KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Jose QuinonezRating 5.5Decision
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · Dec · R3
Rolando DyRating 4.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
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