UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Montreal, Canada
10 May 2025
Middleweight
VS
37%
Barriault
63%
Silva
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:27
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Silva
Silva holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Barriault has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Silva has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Barriault throws more volume but Silva connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barriault's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Silva has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barriault
Silva
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
74"
Reach
74"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barriault
Silva
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
61.6
41.9
Performance Avg
49.0
45
Quality of Victory
58
13
Momentum Score
91
Barriault
Silva
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
53%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
4
3
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
7Clinch5
3Ground0
Barriault
Silva
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barriault
Silva
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
46
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/28 fights
Chin rating based on
11/36 fights
Barriault
Silva
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
13
91
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Barriault
Silva
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barriault
Silva
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
BarriaultSilva
Strike Zones
Barriault
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedSilva
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barriault targets the head (79% of attacks) — Silva absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Silva targets the head (67% of attacks) — Barriault absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barriault
RND
Silva
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Barriault · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Silva · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Barriault · Last 5
Upcoming
Brad TavaresUFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Michal OleksiejczukRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Bruno SilvaRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · KO · R1
Dustin StoltzfusRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
Silva · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Ismail NaurdievRating 6Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 7Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Topuria · 2023-06