The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale
Las Vegas, USA
8 Dec 2007
Lightweight
VS
32%
Huerta
68%
Guida
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 0:51
RH
Roger Huerta
"El Matador"
23 – 9
5'9"70" reachOrthodox43 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 21
Clay
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
38 – 22
Well-Rounded3-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'7"
CFR 44

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Guida

Guida holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Huerta has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Huerta has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Huerta
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
70"
43+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Huerta
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.0
44.2
56.0
Performance Avg
40.7
43
Quality of Victory
35
63
Momentum Score
78
Huerta
Guida
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
36%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
3
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Huerta
Guida
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Huerta
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
8
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/32 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Huerta
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Huerta
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
39%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
5
2
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Huerta
Guida
Striking6.5 / 2.1Volume4.2 / 5.9Grappling2.1 / 3.7Wrestling1.5 / 2.6Submission1.7 / 2.8Pressure6.9 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
Huerta
Strike Zones
Guida
Huerta
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Guida
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Huerta targets the head (89% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (100% of attacks) — Huerta absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Huerta
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Huerta · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W4.5W5.2W5.5W6.0W5.5L5.5L2006-092007-042007-082008-082009-09
WinLossTrend

Guida · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L2.8L5.2W5.7W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.0L4.5W2.8L4.5W1.5L5.4L4.5W5.0W2.9L4.5W1.9L6.2L4.6W5.7L5.3W2.4L4.5W6.3L6.1L2.3L2006-102010-032015-042021-082024-12
WinLossTrend

Huerta · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gray MaynardRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard · 2009-09
L · Dec · R3
Kenny FlorianRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 87: Seek And Destroy · 2008-08
W · Sub · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale · 2007-12
W · KO · R3
Alberto CraneRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC 74: Respect · 2007-08
W · KO · R2
Doug EvansRating 5.2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Pulver vs. Team Penn Finale · 2007-06

Guida · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04

News & Media

Roger Huerta · Clay Guida
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