METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale
Las Vegas, USA
8 Dec 2007
Lightweight
VS
32%
Huerta
68%
Guida
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 0:51
★ Official Result
Roger HuertawinsSubmissionR3 · 0:51
def. Clay Guida · The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Guida
→
Actual result
Huerta wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Guida holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Huerta has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Huerta has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Guida has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HuertaGuida
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Huerta
Guida
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"
Reach
70"
43+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Huerta
Guida
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.0
44.2
56.0
Performance Avg
40.7
43
Quality of Victory
35
63
Momentum Score
78
Huerta
Guida
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
1.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
36%
6.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
3
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Huerta
Guida
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Huerta
Guida
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
96
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
8
—
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
14 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/32 fights
Chin rating based on
37/60 fights
Huerta
Guida
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
78
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Huerta
Guida
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
39%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
5
2
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Huerta
Guida
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.8
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.9
HuertaGuida
Strike Zones
Huerta
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedGuida
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Huerta targets the head (89% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Guida targets the head (100% of attacks) — Huerta absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Huerta
RND
Guida
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Huerta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Huerta · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gray MaynardRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Diaz vs Guillard · 2009-09
L · Dec · R3
Kenny FlorianRating 5.5Decision
UFC 87: Seek And Destroy · 2008-08
W · Sub · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Serra Finale · 2007-12
W · KO · R3
Alberto CraneRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 74: Respect · 2007-08
W · KO · R2
Doug EvansRating 5.2KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Pulver vs. Team Penn Finale · 2007-06
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04