METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
Toronto, Canada
30 Apr 2011
Welterweight
VS
66%
Diaz
34%
MacDonald
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Rory MacDonaldwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Nate Diaz · UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
MacDonald wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but MacDonald has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
MacDonald has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazMacDonald
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
76"
Reach
76"
41
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
18.1
53.4
Performance Avg
51.3
50
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
61
Diaz
MacDonald
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
4.7
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
5.2
3.2
Style: Volume
5.8
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
13
1
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
4Clinch0
0Ground13
Diaz
MacDonald
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
3.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
6.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
10
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diaz
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
13/23 fights
Diaz
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
61
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Diaz
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
44%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
10
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
MacDonald
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
DiazMacDonald
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedMacDonald
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the legs (60% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the head (93% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
MacDonald · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonDecision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerKO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyDecision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaDecision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02