METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
Toronto, Canada
30 Apr 2011
Welterweight
VS
66%
Diaz
34%
MacDonald
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Rory MacDonaldwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Nate Diaz · UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Diaz
→
Actual result
MacDonald wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Diaz holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but MacDonald has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Diaz has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Diaz has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
MacDonald has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazMacDonald
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
6'0"
76"
Reach
76"
41
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Diaz
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
18.1
53.4
Performance Avg
51.3
50
Quality of Victory
39
100
Momentum Score
61
Diaz
MacDonald
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
1.1
50%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
13
1
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
4Clinch0
0Ground13
Diaz
MacDonald
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R4.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
13/23 fights
Diaz
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
61
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R5
W · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Diaz
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
44%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
10
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
MacDonald
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.7
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
DiazMacDonald
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedMacDonald
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the legs (60% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the head (93% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0
Diaz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
MacDonald · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
MacDonald · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Stephen ThompsonRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · KO · R5
Robbie LawlerRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R3
Tarec SaffiedineRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Saffiedine · 2014-10
W · Dec · R3
Tyron WoodleyRating 4.5Decision
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann · 2014-02