METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
St. Louis, USA
11 May 2024
Heavyweight
VS
58%
Lewis
42%
Nascimento
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:49
★ Official Result
Derrick LewiswinsKO/TKOR3 · 0:49
def. Rodrigo Nascimento · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lewis
→
Actual result
Lewis wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Lewis at 58% vs Nascimento at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lewis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Risk flags
Lewis's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nascimento has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LewisNascimento
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Lewis
Nascimento
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
79"
Reach
+80"
41
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lewis
Nascimento
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
58.7
41.9
56.6
Performance Avg
41.5
53
Quality of Victory
31
84
Momentum Score
73
Lewis
Nascimento
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
9.3
/ 10
1.1
/ 10
7.5
Style: Pressure
3.5
2.9
Style: Volume
7.1
16 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
13Ground0
Lewis
Nascimento
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Lewis
Nascimento
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
9
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/42 fights
Chin rating based on
8/14 fights
Lewis
Nascimento
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
73
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lewis
Nascimento
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
25%
16
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lewis
Nascimento
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
LewisNascimento
Strike Zones
Lewis
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedNascimento
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lewis targets the head (93% of attacks) — Nascimento absorbs 93% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lewis
RND
Nascimento
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lewis · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Josh HokitKO/TKO
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaKO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
Nascimento · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alexandr RomanovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R3
Derrick LewisKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Tanner BoserDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09