UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento
St. Louis, USA
11 May 2024
Heavyweight
VS
59%
Lewis
41%
Nascimento
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:49
Derrick
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29 – 13
6'3"79" reachOrthodox41 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 59
Rodrigo
Rodrigo Nascimento
"Ze Colmeia"
11 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'2"
CFR 42

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lewis

This is a genuine toss-up — Lewis at 59% vs Nascimento at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lewis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.

Lewis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Lewis's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Nascimento has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lewis
Nascimento
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'2"
79"
Reach
+80"
41
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lewis
Nascimento
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.2
41.9
57.5
Performance Avg
41.5
53
Quality of Victory
31
84
Momentum Score
73
Lewis
Nascimento
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.2
56%
Strike Accuracy
46%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
16 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
13Ground0
Lewis
Nascimento
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lewis
Nascimento
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/42 fights
Chin rating based on
8/14 fights
Lewis
Nascimento
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
73
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lewis
Nascimento
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
25%
16
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lewis
Nascimento
Striking9.3 / 1.1Volume2.9 / 7.1Grappling0.5 / 3.8Wrestling0.3 / 2.7Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure7.5 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
Lewis
Strike Zones
Nascimento
Lewis
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Nascimento
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lewis targets the head (93% of attacks) — Nascimento absorbs 93% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lewis
RND
Nascimento
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lewis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W1.5L5.2W2.8L5.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W5.4W5.1W3.4L5.9W4.9W6.8W2.1L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.1W6.1W4.5L5.3W3.2L2.7L2.0L5.6W7.3L5.6W6.2W4.3L2014-042016-072019-032022-072026-01
WinLossTrend

Nascimento · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.6W1.8L5.1W4.5W4.8W4.0L6.3L2020-052022-092023-112024-11
WinLossTrend

Lewis · Last 5

Upcoming
Josh Hokit
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11

Nascimento · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Alexandr RomanovRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · KO · R3
Derrick LewisRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
W · Dec · R3
Tanner BoserRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09

News & Media

Derrick Lewis · Rodrigo Nascimento
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