UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2022
Light Heavyweight
VS
56%
Reyes
44%
Spann
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:20
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Reyes
This is a genuine toss-up — Reyes at 56% vs Spann at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Reyes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Reyes's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Spann has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Reyes
Spann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
+6'5"
77"
Reach
+79"
36
Age
+34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Reyes
Spann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.7
43.3
56.3
Performance Avg
54.8
49
Quality of Victory
50
71
Momentum Score
10
Reyes
Spann
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.5
1.8
55%
Strike Accuracy
40%
7.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
7
4
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance7
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Reyes
Spann
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.5
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.7
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Reyes
Spann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
8
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
16/35 fights
Reyes
Spann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
10
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Reyes
Spann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
80%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Reyes
Spann
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
ReyesSpann
Strike Zones
Reyes
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedSpann
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Reyes targets the body (80% of attacks) — Spann absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Spann targets the head (88% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 88% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Reyes
RND
Spann
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Reyes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Spann · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Reyes · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · KO · R1
Carlos UlbergRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · KO · R2
Anthony SmithRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · KO · R1
Dustin JacobyRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
Spann · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Marcus BuchechaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Lukasz BrzeskiRating 5Submission
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03
W · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 5.6Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R2
Bogdan GuskovRating 4.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04