UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Kansas City, USA
26 Apr 2025
Featherweight
VS
46%
Gutierrez
54%
Castaneda
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Castaneda
This is a genuine toss-up — Gutierrez at 46% vs Castaneda at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Castaneda throws more volume but Gutierrez connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Gutierrez
Castaneda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
67"
Reach
+71"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Gutierrez
Castaneda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
51.0
49.3
Performance Avg
43.2
35
Quality of Victory
39
25
Momentum Score
71
Gutierrez
Castaneda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
2.1
61%
Strike Accuracy
55%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
3 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
1
Body
3
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
8Distance8
0Clinch4
0Ground0
Gutierrez
Castaneda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Gutierrez
Castaneda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
82
72
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/29 fights
Chin rating based on
9/29 fights
Gutierrez
Castaneda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
71
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Gutierrez
Castaneda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gutierrez
Castaneda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
7.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
GutierrezCastaneda
Strike Zones
Gutierrez
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedCastaneda
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gutierrez targets the head (63% of attacks) — Castaneda absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Castaneda targets the legs (58% of attacks) — Gutierrez absorbs 58% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gutierrez
RND
Castaneda
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Gutierrez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Castaneda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Gutierrez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Farid BasharatRating 7Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
John CastanedaRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Quang LeRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Song YadongRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
W · Dec · R3
AlatengheiliRating 5.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
Castaneda · Last 5
Upcoming
Mark VologdinDecision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Daniel MarcosRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 5.4Decision
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Muin GafurovRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06