UFC 100
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2009
Light Heavyweight
VS
83%
Jones
17%
O'Brien
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:43
Jon
Jon Jones
"Bones"
28 – 1
6'4"84" reachOrthodox38 yrs19-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 71
JO
Jake O'Brien
"Irish"
15 – 4
Well-Rounded41 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'3"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Jones

Jones is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 56 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Jones has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.

Jones has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

O'Brien has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Jones
O'Brien
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'3"
84"+
Reach
76"
38+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Jones
O'Brien
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
14.6
74.6
Performance Avg
42.4
61
Quality of Victory
33
100
Momentum Score
50
Jones
O'Brien
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.5
58%
Strike Accuracy
33%
4.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
2
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance3
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Jones
O'Brien
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.3
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
2.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
2.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Jones
O'Brien
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
44
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
—
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/29 fights
Chin rating based on
7/19 fights
Jones
O'Brien
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
50
19-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Jones
O'Brien
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
55%
25%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Jones
O'Brien
Striking4.6 / 3.6Volume5.5 / 7.1Grappling3.3 / 1.8Wrestling2.3 / 1.3Submission2.7 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
3.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.1
Jones
Strike Zones
O'Brien
Jones
Attacking
3HEAD2BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
O'Brien
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD2BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Jones targets the head (43% of attacks) — O'Brien absorbs 43% of strikes there
🎯O'Brien targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jones absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Jones
RND
O'Brien
0/0R00/0

Jones · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.2W4.0L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.1W4.5W5.4W5.0W4.5W4.9W4.5W5.1W5.2W5.7W4.5W5.5W6.8W6.3W2008-082011-022013-042019-032024-11
WinLossTrend

O'Brien · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.2W4.5W4.5W3.5L1.5L4.5W4.5L2006-082007-012008-072009-07
WinLossTrend

Jones · Last 5

W · KO · R3
Stipe MiocicRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
W · Sub · R1
Ciryl GaneRating 6.8
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03
W · Dec · R5
Dominick ReyesRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes · 2020-02
W · Dec · R5
Thiago SantosRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Dec · R5
Anthony SmithRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03

O'Brien · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Jon JonesRating 4.5
Submission
UFC 100 · 2009-07
W · Dec · R3
Christian WellischRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2 · 2009-01
L · KO · R1
Cain VelasquezRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC: Silva vs Irvin · 2008-07
L · KO · R2
Andrei ArlovskiRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 82: Pride of a Champion · 2008-03
W · Dec · R3
Heath HerringRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Evans vs Salmon · 2007-01

News & Media

Jon Jones · Jake O'Brien
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