★ Championship Bout · Women's Flyweight
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC
Las Vegas, USA
14 Sept 2024
Women's Flyweight
VS
49%
Grasso
51%
Shevchenko
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Alexa
Alexa Grasso
17 – 5
5'5"66" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 59
Valentina
Valentina Shevchenko
"Bullet"
26 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak38 yrsSouthpaw66" reach5'5"
CFR 62

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Shevchenko

This is a genuine toss-up — Grasso at 49% vs Shevchenko at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Shevchenko has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.

Striking split: Grasso throws more volume but Shevchenko connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Grasso
Shevchenko
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
66"
Reach
66"
32+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Grasso
Shevchenko
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.1
62.2
52.8
Performance Avg
66.5
45
Quality of Victory
55
84
Momentum Score
53
Grasso
Shevchenko
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
58%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
12
1
Body
0
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance13
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Grasso
Shevchenko
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.4
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
2.2
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Grasso
Shevchenko
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/22 fights
Chin rating based on
19/30 fights
Grasso
Shevchenko
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
53
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R4
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R4
Grasso
Shevchenko
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
40%
1
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Grasso
Shevchenko
Striking2.4 / 4.3Volume6.6 / 6.5Grappling3.4 / 2.5Wrestling2.4 / 1.8Submission2.2 / 1.3Pressure4.3 / 5.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
6.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Grasso
Strike Zones
Shevchenko
Grasso
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY4LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD0BODY2LEGS14 absorbed
Shevchenko
Attacking
12HEAD0BODY2LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY4LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Grasso targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Shevchenko absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Shevchenko targets the head (86% of attacks) — Grasso absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Grasso
RND
Shevchenko
0/0R00/0

Grasso · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.5L4.5W3.4L4.5W5.8L4.5W5.5W5.2W5.2W6.7W6.9L7.0L6.0W2016-112019-062022-032025-052026-03
WinLossTrend

Shevchenko · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0104.5W6.7L4.6W6.7W6.7L6.2W4.5W5.1W4.5W5.6W4.5W5.9W6.2W4.7W4.6L5.7W6.1W6.3W2015-122018-022020-112024-092025-11
WinLossTrend

Grasso · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Maycee BarberRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Valentina Shevchenko
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
W · Sub · R4
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03

Shevchenko · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Zhang WeiliRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Manon FiorotRating 6.1
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R5
Alexa GrassoRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
Upcoming
Alexa Grasso
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · 2023-09
L · Sub · R4
Alexa GrassoRating 4.6
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03

News & Media

Alexa Grasso · Valentina Shevchenko
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