UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
4 Feb 2012
Bantamweight
VS
53%
Barao
47%
Jorgensen
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Barao
This is a genuine toss-up — Barao at 53% vs Jorgensen at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Barao has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Striking split: Jorgensen throws more volume but Barao connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Barao's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jorgensen has a chin rating of 14 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Barao
Jorgensen
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"+
Height
5'5"
70"+
Reach
66"
39+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Barao
Jorgensen
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
14.1
59.4
Performance Avg
37.9
64
Quality of Victory
41
0
Momentum Score
54
Barao
Jorgensen
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
38%
Strike Accuracy
38%
3.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
35
Head
32
9
Body
3
5
Leg
2
RangeRange
49Distance37
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Barao
Jorgensen
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.2
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Barao
Jorgensen
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
14
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R3.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/43 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Barao
Jorgensen
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
54
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Barao
Jorgensen
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Barao
Jorgensen
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.2
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
BaraoJorgensen
Strike Zones
Barao
Attacking
49 landedAbsorbing
37 absorbedJorgensen
Attacking
37 landedAbsorbing
49 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Barao targets the head (71% of attacks) — Jorgensen absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Jorgensen targets the head (86% of attacks) — Barao absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Barao
RND
Jorgensen
0/0R00/0
Barao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Jorgensen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Barao · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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Jorgensen · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alejandro PerezRating 2.8KO/TKO
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