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UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Women's Strawweight
VS
46%
Andrade
54%
Dern
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:15
Jessica
Jessica Andrade
"Bate Estaca"
26 – 15
5'1"62" reachOrthodox34 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
Well-Rounded3-fight win streak33 yrsOrthodox63" reach5'4"
CFR 60
★ Official Result
Jessica AndradewinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:15
def. Mackenzie Dern · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dern
→
Actual result
Andrade wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Andrade at 46% vs Dern at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Andrade has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Andrade's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
AndradeDern
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Andrade
Dern
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'4"
62"
Reach
+63"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Andrade
Dern
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.0
59.6
49.4
Performance Avg
51.1
45
Quality of Victory
39
79
Momentum Score
94
Andrade
Dern
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.1
1.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
23
2
Body
2
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
25Distance24
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Andrade
Dern
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Andrade
Dern
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
16/21 fights
Andrade
Dern
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
94
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Andrade
Dern
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
46%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
5
8
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Andrade
Dern
Striking4.7 / 1.4Volume4.9 / 5.7Grappling2.5 / 5.0Wrestling1.8 / 3.5Submission1.8 / 4.5Pressure5.4 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.5
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.5
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Andrade
Strike Zones
Dern
Andrade
Attacking
17HEAD2BODY7LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD2BODY0LEGS25 absorbed
Dern
Attacking
23HEAD2BODY0LEGS25 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD2BODY7LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Andrade targets the head (65% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Dern targets the head (92% of attacks) — Andrade absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Andrade
RND
Dern
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R30/0

Andrade · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0102.8L4.5W5.1W5.0W1.5L4.5W3.3L5.3W5.2W4.6W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W6.5W3.3L6.9L5.3W3.5L5.0W6.1W5.3W3.6L2.5L4.6L6.5W5.2W7.0L2.4L6.0L2013-072016-092020-072023-082025-08
WinLossTrend

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Andrade · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 6
Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Sub · R1
Jasmine JasudaviciusRating 2.4
Submission
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Mackenzie DernRating 6.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

News & Media

Jessica Andrade · Mackenzie Dern
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