METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
New York City, USA
11 Nov 2023
Women's Strawweight
VS
46%
Andrade
54%
Dern
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 3:15
★ Official Result
Jessica AndradewinsKO/TKOR2 · 3:15
def. Mackenzie Dern · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Dern
→
Actual result
Andrade wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Andrade at 46% vs Dern at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Andrade's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AndradeDern
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Andrade
Dern
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'1"
Height
+5'4"
62"
Reach
+63"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Andrade
Dern
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.0
60.4
49.4
Performance Avg
52.7
45
Quality of Victory
41
79
Momentum Score
94
Andrade
Dern
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
1.4
/ 10
5.4
Style: Pressure
5.0
4.9
Style: Volume
6.1
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
23
2
Body
2
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
25Distance24
1Clinch1
0Ground0
Andrade
Dern
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
4.7
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.3
1.8
Submission Style (/10)
4.2
3
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Andrade
Dern
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
70
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
17/21 fights
Andrade
Dern
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
94
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Andrade
Dern
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
42%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
5
8
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Andrade
Dern
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.7
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.3
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.2
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
4.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.1
AndradeDern
Strike Zones
Andrade
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
25 absorbedDern
Attacking
25 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Andrade targets the head (65% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Dern targets the head (92% of attacks) — Andrade absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Andrade
RND
Dern
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R30/0
Andrade · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
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L · Sub · R1
Jasmine JasudaviciusSubmission
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Natalia SilvaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · KO · R2
Mackenzie DernKO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
Dern · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Gillian RobertsonDecision
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08
W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaDecision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosDecision
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