UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige
Las Vegas, USA
19 Jun 2021
Heavyweight
VS
37%
Oleinik
63%
Spivac
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Spivac
Spivac holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Oleinik has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Spivac has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oleinik's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Spivac has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Oleinik
Spivac
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
80"+
Reach
78"
48
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oleinik
Spivac
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
26.5
45.1
52.0
Performance Avg
52.0
51
Quality of Victory
47
39
Momentum Score
33
Oleinik
Spivac
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.8
49%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
27
3
Body
1
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
20Distance19
3Clinch3
1Ground6
Oleinik
Spivac
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
6.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
4.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oleinik
Spivac
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
8
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/77 fights
Chin rating based on
15/24 fights
Oleinik
Spivac
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
33
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Oleinik
Spivac
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
7
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oleinik
Spivac
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
6.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
7.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
1.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
OleinikSpivac
Strike Zones
Oleinik
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedSpivac
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oleinik targets the head (71% of attacks) — Spivac absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Spivac targets the head (96% of attacks) — Oleinik absorbs 96% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oleinik
RND
Spivac
0/0R00/0
Oleinik · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Spivac · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Oleinik · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Ilir LatifiRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10
W · Sub · R1
Jared VanderaaRating 5Submission
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
L · Dec · R3
Serghei SpivacRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jung vs. Ige · 2021-06
L · KO · R1
Chris DaukausRating 1.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R2
Derrick LewisRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
Spivac · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09