UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
Chicago, USA
25 Jan 2014
Featherweight
VS
50%
Elkins
50%
Stephens
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Darren
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
29 – 12
5'10"71" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Jeremy
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29 – 23
Well-Rounded7-fight slide40 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Elkins

This is a genuine toss-up — Elkins at 50% vs Stephens at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Stephens has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Elkins's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Elkins
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Elkins
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
45.0
46.3
Performance Avg
41.1
35
Quality of Victory
40
66
Momentum Score
76
Elkins
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
38%
Strike Accuracy
42%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
1
Body
3
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
6Distance13
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Elkins
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Elkins
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/41 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Elkins
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
76
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Elkins
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
37%
47%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
0
12
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Elkins
Stephens
Striking3.4 / 5.5Volume6.3 / 4.6Grappling2.8 / 1.1Wrestling1.9 / 0.8Submission1.6 / 0.0Pressure4.5 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
Elkins
Strike Zones
Stephens
Elkins
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY1LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY2LEGS13 absorbed
Stephens
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY2LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY1LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Elkins targets the head (71% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 71% of strikes there
🎯Stephens targets the head (62% of attacks) — Elkins absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Elkins
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0

Elkins · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W2.9L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5W4.5W5.3W7.0L4.0L5.5L6.2L5.5W5.2W2.0L4.5W6.0L5.5W5.4W1.7L2010-032013-082017-072021-122025-04
WinLossTrend

Stephens · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.7W2.8L5.5L4.0W4.5W5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W6.0L6.9L5.5W6.6L4.5W5.5L6.3L4.5W6.9W5.2W2.0L5.5L7.1L3.2L2.6L6.5L2.2L2007-052010-092014-062018-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Elkins · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 1.7
KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
W · Sub · R3
TJ BrownRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan PearceRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
W · Dec · R3
Tristan ConnellyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · 2022-04

Stephens · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1
Decision
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News & Media

Darren Elkins · Jeremy Stephens
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