UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Fresno, USA
9 Dec 2017
Lightweight
VS
76%
Holtzman
24%
Horcher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holtzman
Holtzman is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 22 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holtzman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holtzman's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Horcher has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holtzman
Horcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
69"
Reach
+70"
42
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holtzman
Horcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.5
9.8
40.6
Performance Avg
25.0
32
Quality of Victory
25
53
Momentum Score
33
Holtzman
Horcher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
38%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
9
5
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance5
6Clinch5
0Ground0
Holtzman
Horcher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holtzman
Horcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Holtzman
Horcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Holtzman
Horcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holtzman
Horcher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
HoltzmanHorcher
Strike Zones
Holtzman
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedHorcher
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holtzman targets the body (50% of attacks) — Horcher absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Horcher targets the head (90% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holtzman
RND
Horcher
0/0R00/0
Holtzman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Horcher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.6WinLossTrend
Holtzman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R2
Dong Hyun MaRating 4.2UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
Horcher · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Roosevelt RobertsRating 1.7Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Devin PowellRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04