METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Fresno, USA
9 Dec 2017
Lightweight
VS
70%
Holtzman
30%
Horcher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Scott HoltzmanwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Darrell Horcher · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Holtzman
→
Actual result
Holtzman wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Holtzman is a strong favourite at 70% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Holtzman's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Horcher has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HoltzmanHorcher
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Holtzman
Horcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
69"
Reach
+70"
42
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holtzman
Horcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.1
9.8
40.6
Performance Avg
25.0
32
Quality of Victory
25
53
Momentum Score
33
Holtzman
Horcher
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
3.6
Style: Pressure
0.8
5.7
Style: Volume
8.5
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
9
5
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance5
6Clinch5
0Ground0
Holtzman
Horcher
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holtzman
Horcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
64
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/17 fights
Holtzman
Horcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Holtzman
Horcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holtzman
Horcher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
HoltzmanHorcher
Strike Zones
Holtzman
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedHorcher
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holtzman targets the body (50% of attacks) — Horcher absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Horcher targets the head (90% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holtzman
RND
Horcher
0/0R00/0
Holtzman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
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W · Dec · R3
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