METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
Dallas, USA
13 May 2017
Lightweight
VS
24%
Alvarez
76%
Poirier
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Poirier
Poirier is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Alvarez throws more volume but Poirier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alvarez's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Poirier has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
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Alvarez
Poirier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
69"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Alvarez
Poirier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.3
61.4
52.9
Performance Avg
58.2
50
Quality of Victory
50
66
Momentum Score
100
Alvarez
Poirier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.7
45%
Strike Accuracy
54%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
42
4
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
19Distance33
5Clinch11
3Ground0
Alvarez
Poirier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
0
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvarez
Poirier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/35 fights
Chin rating based on
32/40 fights
Alvarez
Poirier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
66
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Sub · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R3
Alvarez
Poirier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
64%
2
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvarez
Poirier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.0
AlvarezPoirier
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedPoirier
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvarez targets the head (85% of attacks) — Poirier absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Poirier targets the head (95% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 95% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvarez
RND
Poirier
0/0R00/0
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Poirier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Alvarez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin PoirierUFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
Poirier · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 6.6Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · Sub · R5
Islam MakhachevRating 6Submission
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · KO · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 6.9KO/TKO
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · KO · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Sub · R3
Michael ChandlerRating 6.3Submission
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11