UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
Oklahoma City, USA
25 Jun 2017
Lightweight
VS
59%
Chiesa
41%
Lee
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:37
Michael
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20 – 7
6'1"75" reachSouthpaw38 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
KL
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded3-fight slide33 yrsOrthodox77" reach5'9"
CFR 35

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chiesa

This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 59% vs Lee at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lee has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Lee has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Chiesa
Lee
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
75"
Reach
+77"
38
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Lee
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
35.2
53.3
Performance Avg
48.3
43
Quality of Victory
42
50
Momentum Score
53
Chiesa
Lee
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
42%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
19
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
2Distance3
0Clinch0
2Ground19
Chiesa
Lee
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.8
4.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chiesa
Lee
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
24
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
4
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
13 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
19/26 fights
Chiesa
Lee
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
53
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Chiesa
Lee
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
55%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
9
Submission Wins
4
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chiesa
Lee
Striking1.4 / 3.0Volume4.6 / 4.1Grappling5.8 / 3.8Wrestling4.0 / 2.6Submission6.0 / 3.6Pressure6.3 / 5.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.0
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.6
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
Chiesa
Strike Zones
Lee
Chiesa
Attacking
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD1BODY2LEGS22 absorbed
Lee
Attacking
19HEAD1BODY2LEGS22 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD1BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (75% of attacks) — Lee absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Lee targets the head (86% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chiesa
RND
Lee
0/0R00/0

Chiesa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W4.5W4.8L4.5W5.7W6.2W1.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W4.7W5.1W3.0L6.6L2.1L5.5W6.1W4.7W5.7W2012-062015-042019-072024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Lee · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W1.6L4.5W6.0W5.2W5.2W5.8W3.3L5.0W5.5L3.6L5.0W4.2L6.4L3.1L2014-022015-122017-062019-112023-07
WinLossTrend

Chiesa · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

Lee · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · 2021-08
L · Sub · R3
Charles OliveiraRating 4.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · 2020-03
W · KO · R1
Gregor GillespieRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
L · Sub · R4
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 3.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05

News & Media

Michael Chiesa · Kevin Lee
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