UFC 106: Ortiz vs Griffin 2
Las Vegas, USA
21 Nov 2009
Welterweight
VS
46%
Thiago
54%
Volkmann
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PT
Paulo Thiago
18 – 9
5'11"74" reachOrthodox45 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
JV
Jacob Volkmann
"Christmas"
19 – 7
Well-Rounded45 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Volkmann

This is a genuine toss-up — Thiago at 46% vs Volkmann at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Thiago throws more volume but Volkmann connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Thiago's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Volkmann has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Thiago
Volkmann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
74"+
Reach
71"
45
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Thiago
Volkmann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
16.1
37.5
Performance Avg
41.9
37
Quality of Victory
30
39
Momentum Score
70
Thiago
Volkmann
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.5
35%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
5
3
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance0
0Clinch0
7Ground5
Thiago
Volkmann
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Thiago
Volkmann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
62
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
10/26 fights
Thiago
Volkmann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
70
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Thiago
Volkmann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
17%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thiago
Volkmann
Striking2.8 / 1.2Volume5.6 / 7.9Grappling3.0 / 3.3Wrestling2.1 / 2.3Submission2.0 / 1.7Pressure4.0 / 3.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
Thiago
Strike Zones
Volkmann
Thiago
Attacking
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Volkmann
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD3BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thiago targets the head (70% of attacks) — Volkmann absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Volkmann targets the head (100% of attacks) — Thiago absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thiago
RND
Volkmann
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Thiago · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.5L2009-022010-062012-112014-09
WinLossTrend

Volkmann · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.0W4.7L2009-112010-082011-122013-02
WinLossTrend

Thiago · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean SpencerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Gasan UmalatovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
L · KO · R1
Brandon ThatchRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Michel PrazeresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun KimRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11

Volkmann · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
W · Sub · R1
Shane RollerRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
L · Sub · R1
Paul SassRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
W · Dec · R3
Efrain EscuderoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
W · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08

News & Media

Paulo Thiago · Jacob Volkmann
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