★ Championship Bout · Interim Featherweight
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
11 Jul 2015
Interim Featherweight
VS
22%
Mendes
78%
McGregor
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:57
CM
Chad Mendes
"Money"
18 – 5
5'6"66" reachOrthodox41 yrsStriker
CFR 21
Conor
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22 – 6
Knockout Artist2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw74" reach5'9"
CFR 74

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McGregor

McGregor is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 19 points.

Striking split: McGregor throws more volume but Mendes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Mendes's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Mendes
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
66"
Reach
+74"
41
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Mendes
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.1
74.4
54.7
Performance Avg
68.9
48
Quality of Victory
67
100
Momentum Score
100
Mendes
McGregor
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
2.0
57%
Strike Accuracy
56%
8.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
22
0
Body
5
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance20
0Clinch0
13Ground7
Mendes
McGregor
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mendes
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Mendes
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Mendes
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
80%
6
KO / TKO Wins
8
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mendes
McGregor
Striking8.0 / 9.4Volume4.0 / 3.0Grappling0.8 / 0.5Wrestling0.6 / 0.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.6 / 7.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
4.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Mendes
Strike Zones
McGregor
Mendes
Attacking
15HEAD0BODY1LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD5BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
McGregor
Attacking
22HEAD5BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD0BODY1LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mendes targets the head (94% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (81% of attacks) — Mendes absorbs 81% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mendes
RND
McGregor
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Mendes · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.9W2.0L5.0W5.0W5.5W6.0W4.5W6.0L5.0W4.1L1.5L5.0W4.2L2011-022012-122014-102018-072018-12
WinLossTrend

McGregor · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.6W5.0W6.3W5.1W5.1W5.5W2.1L4.5W5.1W3.4L5.0W3.4L5.3L2013-042015-012016-082021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Mendes · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R1
Myles JuryRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · KO · R1
Frankie EdgarRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · 2015-12
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Ricardo LamasRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas · 2015-04

McGregor · Last 5

Upcoming
Max Holloway
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

News & Media

Chad Mendes · Conor McGregor
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