UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
East Rutherford, USA
5 May 2012
Middleweight
VS
49%
Palhares
51%
Belcher
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:18
RP
Rousimar Palhares
"Toquinho"
19 – 8
5'8"71" reachOrthodox46 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 22
AB
Alan Belcher
"The Talent"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Belcher

This is a genuine toss-up — Palhares at 49% vs Belcher at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Belcher throws more volume but Palhares connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Palhares's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Belcher has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Palhares
Belcher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+6'2"
71"
Reach
+75"
46
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Palhares
Belcher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.7
22.4
54.0
Performance Avg
53.0
46
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
100
Palhares
Belcher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
1.4
47%
Strike Accuracy
43%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
19
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground20
Palhares
Belcher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
6.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
4.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Palhares
Belcher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
58
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/27 fights
Chin rating based on
15/26 fights
Palhares
Belcher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
Palhares
Belcher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
78%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
6
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Palhares
Belcher
Striking1.3 / 5.6Volume3.3 / 2.1Grappling6.6 / 2.9Wrestling4.6 / 2.0Submission7.5 / 3.3Pressure7.3 / 7.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
6.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
4.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
7.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.2
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.1
Palhares
Strike Zones
Belcher
Palhares
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
19HEAD1BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Belcher
Attacking
19HEAD1BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Belcher targets the head (95% of attacks) — Palhares absorbs 95% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Palhares
RND
Belcher
0/0R00/0

Palhares · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.0W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W1.5L5.2W4.5W5.0W1.5L1.5L5.0W2008-052009-122011-032012-052013-10
WinLossTrend

Belcher · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.5L5.5W2.8L5.0W4.2W1.5L4.7W5.2W5.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L2006-082007-102009-072012-052013-04
WinLossTrend

Palhares · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Mike PierceRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields · 2013-10
L · KO · R1
Hector LombardRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pearson · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · Sub · R1
Mike MassenzioRating 5
Submission
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · 2012-01
W · Dec · R3
Dan MillerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami · 2011-08

Belcher · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04
L · Dec · R3
Yushin OkamiRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasquez II · 2012-12
W · KO · R1
Rousimar PalharesRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Jason MacDonaldRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R2
Patrick CoteRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05

News & Media

Rousimar Palhares · Alan Belcher
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