UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
San Jose, USA
20 Apr 2013
Lightweight
VS
45%
Nijem
55%
Jury
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 1:02
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Jury
This is a genuine toss-up — Nijem at 45% vs Jury at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Striking split: Nijem throws more volume but Jury connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Nijem's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Jury has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Nijem
Jury
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
75"+
Reach
73"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nijem
Jury
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.8
17.8
43.4
Performance Avg
51.3
39
Quality of Victory
41
51
Momentum Score
50
Nijem
Jury
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.3
42%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Nijem
Jury
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.2
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nijem
Jury
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/15 fights
Chin rating based on
12/21 fights
Nijem
Jury
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
50
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
Nijem
Jury
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nijem
Jury
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.1
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
4.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
NijemJury
Strike Zones
Nijem
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedJury
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nijem targets the head (100% of attacks) — Jury absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Jury targets the head (100% of attacks) — Nijem absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nijem
RND
Jury
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Nijem · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Jury · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Nijem · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Andrew HolbrookRating 5.5Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Diego FerreiraRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Justin EdwardsRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Philippou · 2014-01
L · Sub · R1
James VickRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonnen · 2013-08
Jury · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · KO · R1
Chad MendesRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Ricky GlennRating 4.6Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12
W · KO · R1
Mike de la TorreRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
L · Sub · R1
Charles OliveiraRating 2.9Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12