UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
25%
Carmouche
75%
Cerminara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LC
Liz Carmouche
"Girlrilla"
13 – 7
5'6"66" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
Katlyn
Katlyn Cerminara
"Blonde Fighter"
18 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide37 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'9"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cerminara

Cerminara is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Cerminara throws more volume but Carmouche connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Cerminara has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Carmouche
Cerminara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
66"
Reach
+68"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carmouche
Cerminara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
41.2
38.6
Performance Avg
40.9
31
Quality of Victory
25
40
Momentum Score
85
Carmouche
Cerminara
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.8
52%
Strike Accuracy
35%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
2
Body
3
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance7
1Clinch2
0Ground2
Carmouche
Cerminara
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.9
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Carmouche
Cerminara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
17/24 fights
Carmouche
Cerminara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
85
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Carmouche
Cerminara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carmouche
Cerminara
Striking3.0 / 1.3Volume7.4 / 9.3Grappling1.9 / 2.4Wrestling1.3 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.9 / 1.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.9
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
Carmouche
Strike Zones
Cerminara
Carmouche
Attacking
1HEAD2BODY6LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD3BODY0LEGS11 absorbed
Cerminara
Attacking
8HEAD3BODY0LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD2BODY6LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carmouche targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Cerminara absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Cerminara targets the head (73% of attacks) — Carmouche absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carmouche
RND
Cerminara
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Carmouche · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0101.5L6.0W5.5L6.4L5.3W4.8W5.5L4.5W4.5W6.9L2013-022014-042017-122019-08
WinLossTrend

Cerminara · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.3W5.5L5.3W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.7W4.5W4.1L4.5W2.3L4.5W5.2W4.5W4.6W7.1L6.5L2016-072018-122020-102022-102024-03
WinLossTrend

Carmouche · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoRating 6.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Lucie PudilovaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Alexis DavisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11

Cerminara · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Maycee BarberRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Manon FiorotRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Amanda RibasRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
W · Dec · R3
Viviane AraujoRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05

News & Media

Liz Carmouche · Katlyn Cerminara
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