METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
New York City, USA
12 Nov 2016
Women's Bantamweight
VS
23%
Carmouche
77%
Cerminara
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Liz CarmouchewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Katlyn Cerminara · UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cerminara
→
Actual result
Carmouche wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Cerminara is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Cerminara has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CarmoucheCerminara
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Carmouche
Cerminara
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'9"
66"
Reach
+68"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carmouche
Cerminara
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.0
45.8
38.6
Performance Avg
40.9
31
Quality of Victory
25
40
Momentum Score
85
Carmouche
Cerminara
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.0
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
2.9
Style: Pressure
1.9
7.4
Style: Volume
9.3
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
8
2
Body
3
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance7
1Clinch2
0Ground2
Carmouche
Cerminara
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.9
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Carmouche
Cerminara
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
48
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/20 fights
Chin rating based on
18/24 fights
Carmouche
Cerminara
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
85
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Carmouche
Cerminara
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
20%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Carmouche
Cerminara
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
1.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.9
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
CarmoucheCerminara
Strike Zones
Carmouche
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedCerminara
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Carmouche targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Cerminara absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Cerminara targets the head (73% of attacks) — Carmouche absorbs 73% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Carmouche
RND
Cerminara
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Carmouche · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Valentina ShevchenkoDecision
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · 2019-08
W · Dec · R3
Lucie PudilovaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · 2019-02
W · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
L · Dec · R3
Alexis DavisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
Katlyn CerminaraDecision
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
Cerminara · Last 5
Upcoming
Jamey-Lyn HorthUFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · 2026-10
L · Dec · R3
Maycee BarberDecision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Manon FiorotDecision
UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · 2022-10
W · Dec · R3
Amanda RibasDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
W · Dec · R3
Jennifer MaiaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01