UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Welterweight
VS
32%
Condit
68%
Griffin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Griffin
Griffin holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Condit has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Condit has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Condit throws more volume but Griffin connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Griffin has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Condit
Griffin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
+76"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Condit
Griffin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.3
46.4
47.8
Performance Avg
39.0
48
Quality of Victory
37
20
Momentum Score
74
Condit
Griffin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
40%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
23
4
Body
4
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
20Distance29
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Condit
Griffin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Condit
Griffin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Condit
Griffin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
74
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Condit
Griffin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
38%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Condit
Griffin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
ConditGriffin
Strike Zones
Condit
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedGriffin
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (68% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Griffin targets the head (77% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Condit
RND
Griffin
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Condit · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Griffin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Condit · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Decision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownRating 4.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
Griffin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 4.8Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesRating 7.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07