METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Las Vegas, USA
10 Jul 2021
Welterweight
VS
23%
Condit
77%
Griffin
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Max GriffinwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Carlos Condit · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Griffin
→
Actual result
Griffin wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Griffin is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Condit has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Condit's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Griffin has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ConditGriffin
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Condit
Griffin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
+76"
42
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Condit
Griffin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.2
46.4
47.8
Performance Avg
39.0
48
Quality of Victory
37
20
Momentum Score
74
Condit
Griffin
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.4
/ 10
4.6
/ 10
4.5
Style: Pressure
3.9
4.5
Style: Volume
5.8
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
23
4
Body
4
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
20Distance29
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Condit
Griffin
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
/ 10
1.5
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Condit
Griffin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
48
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
3
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
18 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/46 fights
Chin rating based on
19/33 fights
Condit
Griffin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
74
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Condit
Griffin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
38%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Condit
Griffin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.6
1.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.9
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.8
ConditGriffin
Strike Zones
Condit
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedGriffin
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Condit targets the head (68% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Griffin targets the head (77% of attacks) — Condit absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Condit
RND
Griffin
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Condit · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinDecision
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
W · Dec · R3
Matt BrownDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Kattar · 2021-01
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Aldana · 2020-10
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Sub · R2
Alex OliveiraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
Griffin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Victor ValenzuelaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris CurtisDecision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Sub · R3
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Jeremiah WellsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael MoralesDecision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07