UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Tampa, USA
12 Oct 2019
Featherweight
VS
47%
Swanson
53%
Gracie
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Cub
Cub Swanson
31 – 14
5'8"70" reachOrthodox42 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 46
Kron
Kron Gracie
5 – 3
Submission Hunter3-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw70" reach5'9"
CFR 50

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gracie

This is a genuine toss-up — Swanson at 47% vs Gracie at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gracie has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Swanson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Swanson's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Swanson
Gracie
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
70"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Swanson
Gracie
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.5
50.3
48.8
Performance Avg
42.4
40
Quality of Victory
54
56
Momentum Score
43
Swanson
Gracie
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.0
56%
Strike Accuracy
46%
6.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
8 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
40
Head
30
17
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
41Distance22
17Clinch8
1Ground1
Swanson
Gracie
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Swanson
Gracie
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/45 fights
Chin rating based on
4/8 fights
Swanson
Gracie
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
43
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Swanson
Gracie
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
8
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Swanson
Gracie
Striking6.2 / 0.5Volume5.2 / 0.5Grappling1.2 / 8.0Wrestling0.8 / 5.6Submission0.0 / 10.0Pressure5.3 / 7.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
Swanson
Strike Zones
Gracie
Swanson
Attacking
40HEAD17BODY2LEGS59 landed
Absorbing
30HEAD0BODY1LEGS31 absorbed
Gracie
Attacking
30HEAD0BODY1LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
40HEAD17BODY2LEGS59 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Swanson targets the head (68% of attacks) — Gracie absorbs 68% of strikes there
🎯Gracie targets the head (97% of attacks) — Swanson absorbs 97% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Swanson
RND
Gracie
0/0R00/0

Swanson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0102.8L5.2W5.2W6.4W5.8W5.5W5.0W4.0L5.1L4.5W4.5W6.3W4.5W3.5L5.5L2.3L5.5L5.3W6.1W2.5L5.5W3.3L4.6W6.2L6.7W5.7W2011-112014-112018-042022-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Gracie · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0105.2W6.0L6.3L5.0L2019-022019-102023-052024-12
WinLossTrend

Swanson · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Nate LandwehrRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
W · KO · R3
Billy QuarantilloRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Andre FiliRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Hakeem DawoduRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
L · KO · R2
Jonathan MartinezRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10

Gracie · Last 4

L · KO · R3
Bryce MitchellRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
W · Sub · R1
Alex CaceresRating 5.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02

News & Media

Cub Swanson · Kron Gracie
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