METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale
Las Vegas, USA
20 Jun 2009
Welterweight
VS
89%
Osipczak
11%
Lester
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:40
★ Official Result
Nick OsipczakwinsSubmissionR1 · 3:40
def. Frank Lester · The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Osipczak
→
Actual result
Osipczak wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Osipczak is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 18 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Osipczak has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 52 points.
Striking split: Lester throws more volume but Osipczak connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OsipczakLester
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Osipczak
Lester
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
76"
Reach
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Osipczak
Lester
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.1
2.5
47.2
Performance Avg
0.0
52
Quality of Victory
0
59
Momentum Score
0
Osipczak
Lester
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.2
3.2
52%
Strike Accuracy
36%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
3
Body
3
8
Leg
4
RangeRange
1Distance2
13Clinch6
0Ground0
Osipczak
Lester
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Osipczak
Lester
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/9 fights
Chin rating based on
1/17 fights
Osipczak
Lester
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Osipczak
Lester
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Osipczak
Lester
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
OsipczakLester
Strike Zones
Osipczak
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedLester
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Osipczak targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Lester absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Lester targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Osipczak absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Osipczak
RND
Lester
0/0R00/0
Osipczak · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Osipczak · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Duane LudwigRating 5.5Decision
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Greg SotoRating 5.5Decision
UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · 2010-08
L · Dec · R3
Rick StoryRating 5.5Decision
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
W · KO · R3
Matthew RiddleRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Sub · R1
Frank LesterRating 5Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale · 2009-06
Lester · Last 1
L · Sub · R1
Nick OsipczakRating 1.5Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale · 2009-06