UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit
Vancouver, Canada
27 Aug 2016
Middleweight
VS
72%
Alvey
28%
Casey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:56
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alvey
Alvey is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Alvey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Alvey throws more volume but Casey connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alvey's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Casey has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alvey
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
+77"
40+
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Alvey
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.9
9.0
44.3
Performance Avg
25.0
45
Quality of Victory
25
43
Momentum Score
33
Alvey
Casey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.0
46%
Strike Accuracy
51%
5.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
31
Head
8
3
Body
3
6
Leg
1
RangeRange
26Distance12
1Clinch0
13Ground0
Alvey
Casey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.8
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Alvey
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
34
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/51 fights
Chin rating based on
7/14 fights
Alvey
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
33
8-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Alvey
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alvey
Casey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
AlveyCasey
Strike Zones
Alvey
Attacking
40 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedCasey
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
40 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alvey targets the head (78% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Casey targets the head (67% of attacks) — Alvey absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alvey
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Alvey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Casey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Alvey · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5KO/TKO
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L · Sub · R2
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L · Dec · R3
Wellington TurmanRating 5.5Decision
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L · Sub · R2
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Upcoming
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Casey · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
Upcoming
Elvis MutapcicDecision
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L · KO · R3
Rafael NatalRating 4KO/TKO
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Upcoming
Antonio Carlos JuniorUFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Ildemar AlcantaraRating 4.5Decision
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