UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jul 2019
Welterweight
VS
65%
Masvidal
35%
Askren
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:05
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Masvidal
Masvidal holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Askren has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Askren has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Masvidal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Masvidal's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Askren has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Masvidal
Askren
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
74"+
Reach
73"
41
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Masvidal
Askren
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.2
18.6
47.0
Performance Avg
45.7
42
Quality of Victory
54
43
Momentum Score
52
Masvidal
Askren
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.8
49%
Strike Accuracy
47%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Masvidal
Askren
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Masvidal
Askren
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
66
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/52 fights
Chin rating based on
3/21 fights
Masvidal
Askren
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
52
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Masvidal
Askren
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Masvidal
Askren
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
MasvidalAskren
Strike Zones
Masvidal
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedAskren
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Masvidal targets the head (100% of attacks) — Askren absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Masvidal
RND
Askren
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Masvidal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Askren · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.2WinLossTrend
Masvidal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
Askren · Last 3
L · Sub · R3
Demian MaiaRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Askren · 2019-10
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · Sub · R1
Robbie LawlerRating 5.3Submission
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03