UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov
Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
1 Feb 2025
Bantamweight
VS
54%
Nurmagomedov
46%
Oliveira
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Nurmagomedov
This is a genuine toss-up — Nurmagomedov at 54% vs Oliveira at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nurmagomedov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: Oliveira throws more volume but Nurmagomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Nurmagomedov
Oliveira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
70"
Reach
70"
34
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Nurmagomedov
Oliveira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.8
55.0
53.5
Performance Avg
50.8
47
Quality of Victory
31
87
Momentum Score
76
Nurmagomedov
Oliveira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.2
55%
Strike Accuracy
47%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
9
Head
14
4
Body
3
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
13Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground10
Nurmagomedov
Oliveira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.1
/ 10
1.8
/ 10
2.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.3
4.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Nurmagomedov
Oliveira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
88
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/23 fights
Chin rating based on
5/27 fights
Nurmagomedov
Oliveira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
87
76
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
Nurmagomedov
Oliveira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
25%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nurmagomedov
Oliveira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
4.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
2.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
4.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
NurmagomedovOliveira
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedOliveira
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (69% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Oliveira targets the head (74% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 74% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nurmagomedov
RND
Oliveira
0/0R00/0
Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Oliveira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Nurmagomedov · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Bryce MitchellRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Vinicius OliveiraRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Sub · R1
Muin GafurovRating 5Submission
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
L · Dec · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · 2023-03
W · Sub · R2
Saidyokub KakhramonovRating 5.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
Oliveira · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Mario BautistaRating 3.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 5.2Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Ricky SimonRating 5.2Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · KO · R3
Benardo SopajRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03