UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt
Auckland, New Zealand
28 Jun 2014
Lightweight
VS
96%
Matthews
4%
Johnson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 3:16
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matthews
Matthews is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 53 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Matthews has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 37 points.
Striking split: Matthews throws more volume but Johnson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Matthews
Johnson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'7"
73"
Reach
31+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Johnson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
2.1
48.3
Performance Avg
0.0
37
Quality of Victory
0
100
Momentum Score
0
Matthews
Johnson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.7
46%
Strike Accuracy
63%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance3
1Clinch0
21Ground0
Matthews
Johnson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
1.0
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Johnson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
76
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
2/11 fights
Matthews
Johnson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R3
Matthews
Johnson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
6
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Johnson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MatthewsJohnson
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedJohnson
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the head (100% of attacks) — Johnson absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Johnson targets the head (100% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Johnson
0/0R00/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Johnson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.3WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
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W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Johnson · Last 2
L · Sub · R1
Godofredo PepeyRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · 2014-06