★ Championship Bout · Middleweight
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland
Newark, USA
9 May 2026
Middleweight
VS
56%
Chimaev
44%
Strickland
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chimaev
This is a genuine toss-up — Chimaev at 56% vs Strickland at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Chimaev has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Strickland throws more volume but Chimaev connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Strickland has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Chimaev
Strickland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
75"
Reach
+76"
32+
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Chimaev
Strickland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
73.2
57.7
65.1
Performance Avg
50.9
49
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
100
Chimaev
Strickland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.1
55%
Strike Accuracy
45%
4.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
28
10
Body
3
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
20Distance30
2Clinch1
0Ground0
Chimaev
Strickland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.4
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
4.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.6
4
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chimaev
Strickland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
46
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/16 fights
Chin rating based on
25/38 fights
Chimaev
Strickland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Chimaev
Strickland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
4
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chimaev
Strickland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
4.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
7.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
ChimaevStrickland
Strike Zones
Chimaev
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedStrickland
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chimaev targets the head (45% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Strickland targets the head (90% of attacks) — Chimaev absorbs 90% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chimaev
RND
Strickland
0/0R00/0
Chimaev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Strickland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Chimaev · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Sean StricklandRating 6.6Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 6.4Decision
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · Sub · R1
Robert WhittakerRating 5.9Submission
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Kamaru UsmanRating 5.6Decision
UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10
W · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 5.6Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
Strickland · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 6.4Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Paulo CostaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01