UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Adelaide, Australia
1 Dec 2018
Heavyweight
VS
50%
Hunt
50%
Willis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
MH
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
13 – 14
5'10"72" reachOrthodox52 yrs3-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 21
JW
Justin Willis
"Big Pretty"
8 – 2
Well-Rounded38 yrsSouthpaw78" reach6'1"
CFR 20

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Hunt

This is a genuine toss-up — Hunt at 50% vs Willis at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Hunt has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Willis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hunt's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hunt
Willis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+78"
52
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Hunt
Willis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.6
20.4
53.0
Performance Avg
52.2
55
Quality of Victory
34
91
Momentum Score
83
Hunt
Willis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.4
50%
Strike Accuracy
54%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.1
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
27
3
Body
1
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance31
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Hunt
Willis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Hunt
Willis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
98
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
4
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/27 fights
Chin rating based on
5/10 fights
Hunt
Willis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
83
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R4
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Hunt
Willis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
88%
25%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Hunt
Willis
Striking9.8 / 4.1Volume2.0 / 7.6Grappling0.3 / 1.8Wrestling0.2 / 1.3Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.6 / 4.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.1
0.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
0.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.2
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.6
Hunt
Strike Zones
Willis
Hunt
Attacking
1HEAD3BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD1BODY3LEGS31 absorbed
Willis
Attacking
27HEAD1BODY3LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD3BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Hunt targets the body (75% of attacks) — Willis absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Willis targets the head (87% of attacks) — Hunt absorbs 87% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Hunt
RND
Willis
0/0R00/0

Hunt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0101.5L5.2W4.5W5.0W5.5W4.0L5.1W2.1L5.1L5.0W5.0W4.0L6.6W6.4L1.5L5.5L2010-092013-032015-052017-062018-12
WinLossTrend

Willis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4L2017-072017-122018-042018-122019-03
WinLossTrend

Hunt · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Justin WillisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
L · Sub · R1
Aleksei OleinikRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · Dec · R3
Curtis BlaydesRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · 2018-02
W · KO · R4
Derrick LewisRating 6.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
L · KO · R3
Alistair OvereemRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03

Willis · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Curtis BlaydesRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Mark HuntRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Chase ShermanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · KO · R1
Allen CrowderRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
W · Dec · R3
James MulheronRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Ponzinibbio · 2017-07

News & Media

Mark Hunt · Justin Willis
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