UFC 78: Validation
Newark, USA
17 Nov 2007
Lightweight
VS
92%
Lauzon
8%
Reinhardt
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:14
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lauzon
Lauzon is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lauzon has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 49 points.
Lauzon has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lauzon's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Reinhardt has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lauzon
Reinhardt
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'6"
71"
Reach
42+
Age
56
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lauzon
Reinhardt
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
1.5
51.5
Performance Avg
0.0
49
Quality of Victory
0
59
Momentum Score
0
Lauzon
Reinhardt
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.2
43%
Strike Accuracy
33%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
2Clinch1
2Ground0
Lauzon
Reinhardt
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lauzon
Reinhardt
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
5
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
3/23 fights
Lauzon
Reinhardt
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
0
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Lauzon
Reinhardt
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
7
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lauzon
Reinhardt
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
LauzonReinhardt
Strike Zones
Lauzon
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedReinhardt
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lauzon targets the head (60% of attacks) — Reinhardt absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Reinhardt targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lauzon absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lauzon
RND
Reinhardt
0/0R00/0
Lauzon · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Reinhardt · QOF Timeline
Avg: 1.9WinLossTrend
Lauzon · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
L · KO · R2
Chris GruetzemacherRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · KO · R1
Clay GuidaRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Marcin HeldRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Reinhardt · Last 3
L · KO · R2
Edwin FigueroaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Sub · R1
Zhang TiequanRating 1.5Submission
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
L · Sub · R1
Joe LauzonRating 1.5Submission
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11