UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
2 Jan 2016
Featherweight
VS
24%
Brandao
76%
Ortega
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:37
DB
Diego Brandao
"DB"
22 – 11
5'7"64" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 20
Brian
Brian Ortega
"T-City"
16 – 5
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide35 yrsSwitch69" reach5'8"
CFR 62

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Ortega

Ortega is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Brandao has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Brandao's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Brandao
Ortega
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
64"
Reach
+69"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Brandao
Ortega
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.9
62.1
53.4
Performance Avg
53.7
49
Quality of Victory
48
79
Momentum Score
80
Brandao
Ortega
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.5
46%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance3
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Brandao
Ortega
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.5
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
2
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brandao
Ortega
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
70
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/33 fights
Chin rating based on
14/21 fights
Brandao
Ortega
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
80
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
W · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
Brandao
Ortega
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Brandao
Ortega
Striking2.9 / 5.0Volume3.9 / 2.2Grappling3.5 / 4.3Wrestling2.4 / 3.0Submission3.3 / 5.0Pressure5.3 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
Brandao
Strike Zones
Ortega
Brandao
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Ortega
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Brandao targets the head (89% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Ortega targets the head (67% of attacks) — Brandao absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Brandao
RND
Ortega
0/0R00/0

Brandao · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W6.0L4.5W5.0W5.4W2.8L3.5L4.0W5.0W5.4L2011-122013-042014-072016-01
WinLossTrend

Ortega · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5W5.5W6.0W6.3W5.7W5.0W6.2L5.0W7.0L3.1L6.8W6.8L6.5L2015-062017-122021-092025-08
WinLossTrend

Brandao · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
Katsunori KikunoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
W · R1
Jimy HettesRating 4
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · KO · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12

Ortega · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 6.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
L · Dec · R5
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 7
Decision
UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · 2021-09

News & Media

Diego Brandao · Brian Ortega
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