METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Las Vegas, USA
2 Jan 2016
Featherweight
VS
24%
Brandao
76%
Ortega
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:37
★ Official Result
Brian OrtegawinsSubmissionR3 · 1:37
def. Diego Brandao · UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ortega
→
Actual result
Ortega wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Ortega is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Risk flags
Brandao's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BrandaoOrtega
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Brandao
Ortega
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
64"
Reach
+69"
39
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Brandao
Ortega
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.9
62.1
53.4
Performance Avg
53.7
49
Quality of Victory
48
79
Momentum Score
80
Brandao
Ortega
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.9
/ 10
5.0
/ 10
5.3
Style: Pressure
8.0
3.9
Style: Volume
2.2
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
3 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
2
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance3
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Brandao
Ortega
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.5
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
2.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
2
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Brandao
Ortega
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
70
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/33 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Brandao
Ortega
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
80
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R1
W · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Brandao
Ortega
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
88%
1
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
4
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Brandao
Ortega
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.3
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
3.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.2
BrandaoOrtega
Strike Zones
Brandao
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedOrtega
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Brandao targets the head (89% of attacks) — Ortega absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Ortega targets the head (67% of attacks) — Brandao absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Brandao
RND
Ortega
0/0R00/0
Brandao · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaSubmission
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · 2016-01
W · KO · R1
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W · R1
Jimy HettesUFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · KO · R1
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2 · 2013-12
Ortega · Last 5
Upcoming
Renato MoicanoUFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · 2026-09
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingDecision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Diego LopesDecision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R3
Yair RodriguezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Yair RodriguezKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07