UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson
Melbourne, Australia
26 Nov 2016
Middleweight
VS
53%
Kelly
47%
Camozzi
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DK
Daniel Kelly
13 – 4
6'0"70" reachSouthpaw48 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
CC
Chris Camozzi
24 – 13
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox75" reach6'2"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kelly

This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 53% vs Camozzi at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Kelly throws more volume but Camozzi connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kelly's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Camozzi has a chin rating of 40 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Kelly
Camozzi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'2"
70"
Reach
+75"
48
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Kelly
Camozzi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
14.4
44.4
Performance Avg
37.6
34
Quality of Victory
31
65
Momentum Score
63
Kelly
Camozzi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
46%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
13
Head
21
0
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
13Distance21
0Clinch0
1Ground0
Kelly
Camozzi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
2.5
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kelly
Camozzi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
40
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
19/37 fights
Kelly
Camozzi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
63
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Kelly
Camozzi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
22%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelly
Camozzi
Striking2.9 / 2.1Volume6.5 / 6.3Grappling2.9 / 2.5Wrestling2.0 / 1.7Submission1.7 / 1.1Pressure4.1 / 3.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.1
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.3
Kelly
Strike Zones
Camozzi
Kelly
Attacking
13HEAD0BODY1LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD0BODY0LEGS21 absorbed
Camozzi
Attacking
21HEAD0BODY0LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
13HEAD0BODY1LEGS14 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (93% of attacks) — Camozzi absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Camozzi targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelly
RND
Camozzi
0/0R00/0

Kelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.0W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W1.8L5.5L1.5L2014-112015-112017-032018-05
WinLossTrend

Camozzi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L6.9W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.5L5.5L1.5L4.5W5.0W4.5W4.0L5.5L5.5L2010-062012-062014-072016-052017-05
WinLossTrend

Kelly · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11

Camozzi · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11
L · Sub · R3
Thales LeitesRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
Vitor MirandaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt · 2016-05
W · KO · R1
Joe RiggsRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · 2016-02

News & Media

Daniel Kelly · Chris Camozzi
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