METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
★ Championship Bout · Ultimate Fighter 4 Welterweight Tournament
The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale
Las Vegas, USA
11 Nov 2006
Ultimate Fighter 4 Welterweight Tournament
VS
50%
Serra
50%
Lytle
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Matt SerrawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Chris Lytle · The Ultimate Fighter: The Comeback Finale
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Serra
→
Actual result
Serra wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Serra at 50% vs Lytle at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Serra has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Serra's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SerraLytle
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Serra
Lytle
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'11"
68"
Reach
68"
52
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Serra
Lytle
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.2
18.3
53.3
Performance Avg
46.2
56
Quality of Victory
44
52
Momentum Score
56
Serra
Lytle
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
4.5
Style: Pressure
6.4
5.6
Style: Volume
3.4
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
3
2
Body
10
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance1
3Clinch12
1Ground0
Serra
Lytle
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
5.5
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.9
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
6.0
1
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Serra
Lytle
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
80
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/18 fights
Chin rating based on
20/49 fights
Serra
Lytle
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
52
56
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Serra
Lytle
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
70%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
6
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Serra
Lytle
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.5
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.9
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.4
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.4
SerraLytle
Strike Zones
Serra
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedLytle
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Serra targets the head (60% of attacks) — Lytle absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Lytle targets the body (77% of attacks) — Serra absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Serra
RND
Lytle
0/0R00/0
Serra · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chris LytleDecision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · KO · R1
Frank TriggKO/TKO
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Matt HughesDecision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
L · KO · R2
Georges St-PierreKO/TKO
UFC 83: Serra vs St-Pierre 2 · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Georges St-PierreKO/TKO
UFC 69: Shootout · 2007-04
Lytle · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Dan HardySubmission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Brian EbersoleDecision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Matt SerraDecision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
W · Sub · R2
Matt BrownSubmission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · Sub · R1
Brian FosterSubmission
UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez · 2010-02