UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
San Diego, USA
1 Aug 2010
Lightweight
VS
54%
Kelly
46%
Volkmann
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PK
Paul Kelly
14 – 5
5'9"70" reachOrthodox41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 19
JV
Jacob Volkmann
"Christmas"
19 – 7
Well-Rounded45 yrsSouthpaw71" reach5'9"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kelly

This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 54% vs Volkmann at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Kelly has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Kelly's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Volkmann has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Kelly
Volkmann
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
5'9"
70"
Reach
+71"
41+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Kelly
Volkmann
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
16.1
43.8
Performance Avg
41.9
36
Quality of Victory
30
99
Momentum Score
70
Kelly
Volkmann
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.5
41%
Strike Accuracy
37%
3.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
4
2
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
1Clinch0
7Ground3
Kelly
Volkmann
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.5
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kelly
Volkmann
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
62
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/19 fights
Chin rating based on
10/26 fights
Kelly
Volkmann
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
99
70
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kelly
Volkmann
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
17%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelly
Volkmann
Striking3.1 / 1.2Volume5.9 / 7.9Grappling3.0 / 3.3Wrestling2.1 / 2.3Submission2.0 / 1.7Pressure4.5 / 3.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.7
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.9
Kelly
Strike Zones
Volkmann
Kelly
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Volkmann
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY1LEGS11 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (73% of attacks) — Volkmann absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Volkmann targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelly
RND
Volkmann
0/0R00/0

Kelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W2.8L5.2W5.5L5.2W2.8L2008-012009-062010-082011-02
WinLossTrend

Volkmann · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0105.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.0W4.7L2009-112010-082011-122013-02
WinLossTrend

Kelly · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Donald CerroneRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort · 2011-02
W · KO · R2
TJ O'BrienRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · Dec · R3
Jacob VolkmannRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
W · Sub · R2
Matt VeachRating 5.2
Submission
UFC 112: Invincible · 2010-04
L · KO · R2
Dennis SiverRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11

Volkmann · Last 5

L · Sub · R3
King GreenRating 4.7
Submission
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
W · Sub · R1
Shane RollerRating 5
Submission
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot · 2012-10
L · Sub · R1
Paul SassRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
W · Dec · R3
Efrain EscuderoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
W · Dec · R3
Danny CastilloRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08

News & Media

Paul Kelly · Jacob Volkmann
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