UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
Montreal, Canada
25 Apr 2015
Women's Strawweight
VS
15%
Rakoczy
85%
Letourneau
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JR
Jessica Rakoczy
"The Ragin'"
1 – 5
5'7"Orthodox49 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 2
VL
Valerie Letourneau
"Trouble"
8 – 6
Well-Rounded3-fight slide43 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'7"
CFR 12

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Letourneau

Letourneau is a strong favourite at 85% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Letourneau has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Striking split: Letourneau throws more volume but Rakoczy connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Rakoczy
Letourneau
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
Reach
68"
49
Age
+43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rakoczy
Letourneau
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.1
12.1
0.0
Performance Avg
35.0
0
Quality of Victory
25
0
Momentum Score
35
Rakoczy
Letourneau
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
42%
Strike Accuracy
37%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
8
6
Body
7
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
15Distance11
5Clinch5
0Ground1
Rakoczy
Letourneau
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Rakoczy
Letourneau
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
74
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/6 fights
Chin rating based on
6/14 fights
Rakoczy
Letourneau
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
35
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Rakoczy
Letourneau
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Rakoczy
Letourneau
Striking0.0 / 1.0Volume0.0 / 9.0Grappling0.0 / 2.4Wrestling0.0 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Rakoczy
Strike Zones
Letourneau
Rakoczy
Attacking
12HEAD6BODY2LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD7BODY2LEGS17 absorbed
Letourneau
Attacking
8HEAD7BODY2LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD6BODY2LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Rakoczy targets the head (60% of attacks) — Letourneau absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Letourneau targets the head (47% of attacks) — Rakoczy absorbs 47% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Rakoczy
RND
Letourneau
0/0R00/0

Rakoczy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0103.0L5.5L2013-112015-04
WinLossTrend

Letourneau · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0104.5W4.5W5.1W5.5L4.2L5.5L2014-062015-042015-082015-112016-062016-12
WinLossTrend

Rakoczy · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Valerie LetourneauRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Julianna PenaRating 3
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · 2013-11

Letourneau · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Viviane PereiraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · 2016-12
L · KO · R3
Joanne WoodRating 4.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06
L · Dec · R5
Joanna JedrzejczykRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Maryna MorozRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Oliveira · 2015-08
W · Dec · R3
Jessica RakoczyRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi · 2015-04

News & Media

Jessica Rakoczy · Valerie Letourneau
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